【摘要】 民为国本，粮为民本，如何在“十四五”时期有效保障我国粮食安全，缓解各类潜在风险，是目前亟待解决的问题。文章对“十四五”时期我国粮食生产的发展态势进行展望，并聚焦分析粮食生产的主要风险因素。文章认为“十四五”时期，我国粮食生产将平稳发展，粮食产量呈上升趋势，在“十四五”期末有望达到6.9亿吨以上。提出“十四五”时期我国粮食生产主要面临自然资源约束加剧，劳动力约束加大，种子产业发展缓慢，规模化、机械化程度不高，生产过度集中，以及重大突发事件频发等潜在风险因素。最后，针对上述风险因素提出了政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Food security is crucial to national security. Thus, it is an urgent task to figure out the potential risks that threaten China’s food security during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period and how to cope with those risks. This paper provides an outlook for the development of China’s food production during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period, and then points out the potential risks faced by food production. The paper demonstrates that China’s food production will achieve a steady development during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period, and the grain output will reach more than 690 Mt by the end of the 14 th Five-Year Plan period. The paper argues that the main potential risks faced by food production during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period include the increasing intensive constraints on natural and labor resources, the slow development of the seed industry, the low degree of scale and mechanization, the over-concentration phenomenon, and the frequent occurrence of major events. In the end, corresponding suggestions are proposed corresponding to the above risks.更多还原