【摘要】 为了研究非洲猪瘟在封闭式猪舍内传播的规律，通过引入SI(susceptible-infective)模型，并在此基础上进行改进，结合猪舍内猪只的移动规律及个体体质的差异，分析猪舍内猪只感染非洲猪瘟的概率；设计猪只个体接触后的感染规则，构建元胞自动机模型进行仿真，模拟非洲猪瘟在猪舍的传播情况；通过将元胞自动机模拟的非洲猪瘟的传播仿真结果与传统SI模型的传播数据进行对比分析。结果表明：元胞自动机仿真非洲猪瘟舍内传播能够与传统的SI模型传播数据可以实现较好的拟合，拟合度为0.96,同时使用元胞自动机作为非洲猪瘟的传播模型在预测方面具有优势，可以通过迭代对传播过程可视化，进而实时预测非洲猪瘟在密闭猪舍的传播轨迹，为相关传染病的仿真研究提供了理论指导。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to study the spread of African swine fever in closed pig houses, by introducing the susceptible-infective(SI) model and improving it on this basis, combining the movement rule of pigs in the pig house and the difference of individual constitution, the probability of pigs in the pig house infected with African swine fever was analyzed. The infection rules were Designed after individual contact of pigs, cellular automata model for simulation was built, and the spread of African swine fever in pig houses was simulated. By comparing the propagation simulation results of African swine fever simulated by cellular automata with the propagation data of traditional SI model. The results show that the cellular automata simulation of African swine fever in-house propagation can achieve a good fit with the traditional SI model propagation data, and the fitting degree is 0.96. At the same time, the cellular automaton is used as the African swine fever propagation model it has advantages in prediction. It can visualize the transmission process through iteration, and then predict the transmission trajectory of African swine fever in closed pig houses in real time, which provides theoretical guidance for the simulation research of related infectious diseases.更多还原