【摘要】 目的 基于社会认知理论分析不吸烟青少年中未来吸烟意向的影响因素，以降低青少年未来吸烟行为的发生风险。方法 采用分层整群随机法和PPS抽样，以2017学年在读的中学生为调查对象。在上海市4个区中抽取33所学校，其中初中19所、高中10所、职校4所。使用AMOS 21.0构建影响因素的结构方程模型。结果 对环境、社会影响、结果预期、自我效能4个潜在变量的影响效应进行分解，对未来吸烟意向影响最大的为自我效能，直接效应为0.755；其次为社会影响，其直接效应为0.146，但间接效应为0.554；结果期望对未来意向的影响总效应为0.392，其中直接效应为0.075；通过自我效能影响吸烟行为的效应为0.317；环境因素对未来意向无直接影响，但通过社会影响、结果期望、自我效能等间接途径产生的总效应为0.320。结论 建议在制定控烟措施时针对人群特点，提高青少年的自我效能感，加强对重点影响因素的干预，开展针对性的教育活动。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the influencing factors of future smoking intention among nonsmoking adolescents in order to reduce the risk of future smoking behaviors in adolescents. Methods The survey was conducted among middle school students in 2017 academic year. With stratified cluster random method and PPS sampling, 33 schools were selected from 4 districts in Shanghai, including 19 junior high schools, 10 senior high schools and 4 vocational schools. The structural equation model of influencing factors was constructed using AMOS 21.0. Results In the four potential variables including environment, social influence, outcome expectation, and self-efficacy on future smoking intention, self-efficacy was the greatest influence on future intention, with a direct effect of 0.755. Followed by social influence, which the direct effect was 0.146, but the indirect effect was 0.554. The total effect of outcome expectation on future intention was 0.392, of which the direct effect was 0.075, and the effect of smoking behavior through self-efficacy was 0.317. Environmental factors had no direct effect on future intention, but the total effect through indirect means such as social influence, outcome expectations, and self-efficacy was 0.320. Conclusion It was suggested that focusing on the characteristics of the population, to improve the self-efficacy of adolescents,strengthen the intervention on key influencing factors, and carry out targeted educational activities in formulating tobacco control measures.更多还原