【摘要】 利用山西滹沱河流域1972～2021年7个国家气象观测站和2017～2021年21个区域气象站的夏季降水资料，应用Mann-Kendall趋势和突变检验及回归分析的方法，分析了山西滹沱河流域降水的时空分布规律。研究结果表明：50年来山西滹沱河流域夏季平均降水量呈微弱的增加趋势，递增速率为2.08 mm/10 a;6月和8月的平均降水量分别以1.3和0.6 mm/10 a的速率递减，而7月以4.9 mm/10 a的速率递增；滹沱河的夏季降水量基本上呈东南向西北递减的空间分布特征，其中上游和下游的夏季降水量呈弱的增加趋势，中游呈显著的增加趋势；滹沱河流域夏季降水量的年际波动幅度较大，最大降水量为498.5 mm(1988年)，最小降水量为111.3 mm(1972年)；夏季降水量在1973年、1981年和2015年共发生了3次突变；夏季降水的时空分布局地性强，均一性差；近10年滹沱河流域夏季处在丰水期，发生暴雨洪涝灾害的频次是2009～2015年的6.4倍。更多还原

【Abstract】 The summer daily precipitation data of 7 national meteorological stations from 1972 to 2021 and 21 regional meteorological stations from 2017 to 2021 were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation in Shanxi Hutuo River Basin by Mann-Kendall trend, mutation test and regression analysis method. The results showed that the average summer precipitation implied a slight increasing trend in the past 50 years. The increasing rate was 2.08 mm/10 a. In June and August, it decreased by 1.3 mm/10 a and 0.6 mm/10 a respectively. In July, it increased by 4.9 mm/10 a. The summer precipitation of Hutuo River basically showed the spatial distribution characteristics of decreasing from southeast to northwest.The upper and lower reaches of Hutuo River showed a weak increasing trend, while the middle reaches showed a significant increasing trend. The interannual fluctuation amplitude of Hutuo River Basin in summer was relatively large, with the maximum precipitation of 498.5 mm in 1988 and the minimum precipitation of 111.3 mm in 1972. Summer precipitation had three abrupt changes in 1973, 1981 and 2015. The spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation was local and uneven. In the past 10years, the summer precipitation in Hutuo River Basin was in a wet period, and the frequency of rainstorm and flood disasters was 6.4 times of that from 2009 to 2015.更多还原