【摘要】 Nikola公司于2020年4月提出了“固定路线+配套加氢站”的全生态解决方案，并得到了美国市场的积极响应，但直至今日Nikola公司的项目并未落地，公司的创始人的离职更让投资者疑虑重重。氢燃料汽车的捆绑租赁商业模式在中国是否具有经济可行性问题值得深入研究。首先根据商业模式理论针对中国的氢燃料汽车的产业现状对其捆绑租赁的商业模式的目标客户、服务内容、主要业务流程、盈利模式进行设计，然后通过情景假设，以外部政策变化因素“是否享受政府补贴”和企业决策因素“及是否自建加氢站”这两个因素的组合对氢燃料汽车捆绑租赁商业模式在多种情景下的经济可行性进行分析研究。结果表明，当企业享有政府补贴时，氢燃料汽车的捆绑租赁商业模式理论上在国内具有可行性。当用户租车数较少时，租赁企业采用与第三方加氢站合作盈利可能性较大，当用户租车数超过特定阈值后自建加氢站的盈利空间更大。在没有政府补贴的情况下，租赁企业无法实现盈利。因此，在当前阶段，政府在氢燃料电池汽车产业发展中仍然要发挥关键的主导作用，使用包括政府补贴在内的工具激励民营企业投资该产业，通过技术创新和风险控制推动产业高质量发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nikola Company proposed a full ecological solution of “fixed route + supporting hydrogen refueling station” in April 2020 and received a positive response from the U.S. market, but Nikola’s project has not been implemented until now, and the departure of the company’s founder has made investors doubtful. Is the bundled leasing business model for hydrogen vehicles economically viable in China? Although there is a lot of discussion on this issue, there is a lack of in-depth academic research. This paper firstly designs the target customers, service content, main business process and profit model of the bundled leasing business model based on the business model theory and the current situation of the hydrogen fuel vehicle industry in China, and then hypothesizes the external policy change factor “whether to enjoy government subsidies” and the enterprise decision factor “whether to build their own hydrogen refueling system”. Then, we analyzed the economic feasibility of the hydrogen fuel vehicle bundle leasing business model under various scenarios by combining the two factors of external policy change “whether to enjoy government subsidies” and the enterprise decision factor “and whether to build its own hydrogen refueling station”. The results show that the bundled leasing business model of hydrogen vehicles is theoretically feasible in China when the enterprises enjoy government subsidies, and it is more profitable for leasing enterprises to cooperate with third-party hydrogen refueling stations when the number of rented vehicles is small, and it is more profitable for them to build their own hydrogen refueling stations when the number of rented vehicles exceeds a certain threshold. In the absence of government subsidies, leasing companies cannot achieve profitability. Therefore, at the current stage, the government still has to play a key leading role in the development of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry, using incentives instruments such as government subsidies for private enterprises to invest in the industry, and promoting high-quality development of the industry through technological innovation and risk control.更多还原