【摘要】 为验证纯电动汽车较燃油车的碳减排效果以及探究禁售燃油车的恰当时间，运用OPEM(Operation Emission Model)模型，采用行驶里程法，引入纯电动汽车市场渗透率参数，在未来车辆保有量低速和高速发展两种背景下，通过设定不同禁售情景来分析燃油车替代策略的减排效果。研究结果表明：（1）若2030年禁售燃油车，在未来车辆保有量低速发展模式下和高速发展模式下，到2050年碳减排分别为31.79%和32.65%，若2035年禁售燃油车，则两种模式下碳减排分别为27.53%和28.31%，若2040年禁售燃油车，则两种模式下碳减排分别为24.51%和25.21%;(2)若以全国2030年碳达峰作为道路交通碳达峰的目标，则第一阶段获得的最优禁售年份区间为2035年之前，而若是2035年及之后禁售燃油车，则道路交通碳达峰年份都将在2030年之后；（3）对最优禁售燃油车年份区间进一步分析，得出禁售燃油车的年份应不晚于2032年，且除2027年与2028年外，其他相邻年份的道路交通碳达峰年份无论高速发展模式还是低速发展模式下相差均不超过1年。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to verify the carbon emission reduction effect of pure electric vehicles compared with fuel vehicles and to investigate the optimal time of banning fuel vehicles sale this paper used the OPEM(Operation Emission Model), adopted the mileage method and introduced pure electric vehicle market penetration parameters to analyze the emission reduction effect of fuel vehicle substitution strategy by setting different banning scenarios under two backgrounds of low-speed and high-speed development of future vehicle ownership. The results show that:(1) if fuel vehicles are banned in 2030,the carbon emission reduction by 2050 will be 31.79% and 32.65% under the low-speed development mode and the high-speed development mode, respectively; if fuel vehicles are banned in 2035, the carbon emission reduction will be 27.53% and 28.31% under the two modes, respectively; if fuel vehicles are banned in 2040, the carbon emission reduction will be 24.51% and 25.21% under the two modes,respectively;(2)if taking the national carbon peak in 2030 as the goal of road traffic carbon peaking,the optimal sales ban period obtained in the first phase is before 2035, while if the sale of fuel vehicles is banned in 2035 and later, the peak year of road traffic carbon will be after 2030;(3) further analysis of the optimal year interval to ban the sale of fuel vehicles, it is concluded that the end to the sale of fuel vehicles should be no later than 2032, in addition, except for 2027 and 2028, the difference between the road traffic carbon peaking years in the adjacent years is no more than 1 year, no matter in the highspeed development mode or low-speed development mode.更多还原