【摘要】 为了更好地预报新余市气温的变化，利用1959—2019年新余市逐日气温数据，采用线性趋势、墨西哥帽(Mexican hat)子波方法及Mann-Kendall法等方法，对新余市近60 a来气温变化趋势进行气候特征分析。结果表明:新余市年平均气温偏暖，春、秋、冬季平均气温偏暖，都有15—16 a左右的振荡周期。新余市夏季平均气温变化比较平缓，在20世纪以后有明显的4—5 a左右的振荡周期。年平均气温、春季平均气温在20世纪90年代末;秋、冬季平均气温在20世纪90年代初，各有一个较为显著的增暖突变点。这些结果对新余市气温的变化趋势的预测提供了参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the temperature data of Xinyu from 1959 to 2019,the climate feature of temperature change trend in Xinyu in recent 60 years are analyzed by using linear trend,Mexican Hat wavelet method and Mann-Kendall method. The results show that the annual average temperature and the average temperature in spring,autumn and winter in Xinyu have an oscillation period of about 15—16 a,and the signal is strong. At present,it is in a warm period. The average temperature in summer has an obvious oscillation period of about 4—5 a after the 20th century,and is now in a cold period. The annual average temperature and the average temperature in spring,summer,autumn and winter all show an upward trend,of which the temperature rises most obviously in winter and changes gently in summer. The annual average temperature and spring average temperature had a significant warming mutation point in the late 1990s,while the autumn and winter average temperature had a significant warming mutation point in the early 1990s.更多还原