【摘要】 经济与环境双赢的绿色发展是新时代中国工业的必然选择，但不同地区、不同发展阶段应有不同的侧重点。本文采用内生方向性距离函数构建了在社会福利最大化下统筹经济增长与污染减排的分析框架，基于2003—2016年中国282个地级及以上城市工业经济环境数据，测度了各地区绿色发展的方向及潜能。研究发现：(1)从时间维度，中国工业呈现出“增长倾向→绿色倾向”的实质性转变，“绿色倾向”已逐渐成为工业发展的主流形态。(2)从区域维度，绿色发展方向的区域差异显著，东部应更注重污染减排，中西部应更注重经济增长。(3)从城市维度，基于绿色发展方向的变化特征，将城市归纳为绿色先行区、绿色倾向区、绿色转型区、中性发展区、增长倾向区五种形态。(4)统筹增长与减排所得到的绿色发展方向，相比于国家规划导向更能激发出“绿色潜能”。总之，工业发展必须走一条符合自身情况的因地制宜、因时制宜之路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening up, China’s industry has created a miracle of growth that has attracted worldwide attention. The rapid economic growth has also resulted in serious environmental pollution, which restricted the sustainability of economic development. According to the Report on the State of the Ecology and Environment in China 35.7% of cities at prefecture level and above failed to meet air quality standard. As a developing country, China can neither blindly pursue economic growth without sacrificing environment indefinitely, nor pay only attention to environmental protection and ignore economic development. Therefore, a win-win of economic growth and pollution reduction is the inevitable choice for China’s industrial development in the new era.How to integrate the relationship between economic growth and pollution reduction is a significant problem in China’s industrial development. Specifically, under the circumstance of economic gap among various regions, how to achieve green development for each region is a huge challenge that we must face. To this end, this paper introduces the recently developed endogenous directional distance function model with the goal of social welfare maximization to explore heterogeneous direction and potential of regional green development from the perspective of inefficiency. This paper uses data of industrial economy and environment of 282 cities in China from 2003 to 2016 to measure directional index of industrial green development of each region and the potential economic and environmental effects.This paper finds that, firstly, from the time dimension, the endogenous direction of industrial green development has shown a substantial change from growth tendency to green tendency, and green tendency has gradually become main trend for China’s industrial development. Secondly, from the regional dimension, there are significant regional differences in the endogenous direction of industrial green development. Eastern regions should pay more attention to pollution reduction, and central and western regions should pay more attention to economic growth. Thirdly, from the city dimension, cities can be classified into five forms, namely, green development pilot zone, green tendency zone, green transformation zone, neutral development zone, and growth tendency zone. Fourthly, the endogenous direction focuses on the balance of economic growth and pollution reduction in each city, which can stimulate the green potential more than national planning. Therefore, China’s industrial green development must adapt measures to local conditions.Some useful policy implications are also obtained. China’s industrial green development should consider regional differences, balance economic growth and pollution reduction with the goal of social welfare maximization, and choose the green development path adapting to the current economic development stage of each region. Specifically, eastern regions should make innovation in developing green technology, develop cleaning products and high-end manufacturing, and accelerate adjustment and upgrading of the industrial structure. Central and western regions can appropriately incorporate some industries transferred from the eastern region to increase the pace of industrial development. In terms of planning goals, according to the overall national demand for economic growth and pollution reduction, economic growth goals or pollution reduction goals of central and western regions can be appropriately increased to accelerate economic transformation.Compared with existing literature, this paper makes three main contributions. Firstly, with the goal of maximizing social welfare, a green development directional index that integrates economic growth and pollution reduction is constructed, and the development direction of each region can be determined by comparing growth efficiency loss(underdevelopment) and green efficiency loss(excessive emissions). Secondly, based on the changing characteristics of the green development directional index, cities are classified into five green development forms, which provide basis for exploring differentiated path for achieving industrial green development of each region. Thirdly, the development directional index measured by endogenous directional distance function model represents the best balance point between economic growth and pollution reduction, which can provide optimization ideas for national planning.更多还原