【摘要】 为落实金融安全战略，防范地方政府债务风险和金融风险相互交织下的系统性风险，本文依据复杂系统理论分析风险动态演化的多重反馈结构及交互作用机理，构建地方政府债务风险与金融风险交互影响的系统动力学模型。选取2011—2020年中国31个省份的面板数据进行实证仿真，探究不同政策情景冲击下的东中西部地区风险系统敏感性因素及敏感性程度。研究结果显示：(1)房价和房产税税收是地方政府债务风险和金融风险交互传导的关键影响因素。(2)从作用方向看，房价波动与地方政府债务风险呈反向关系，与金融风险呈正向关系；房产税税收与地方政府债务风险呈反向关系，与金融风险呈现出不确定性。(3)从作用力度看，房价下跌对地方政府债务风险的作用力度最强，房产税税收减少次之；房价上涨对金融风险的作用力度最强，房产税税收减少次之。(4)从敏感度看，房价下跌对系统风险造成的冲击比房价上涨更敏感；房产税税收增加对系统风险造成的冲击比房产税税收减少更敏感；西部地区对房价调控政策最敏感，东部地区对房产税调控政策最敏感。研究结论为有效阻断地方政府债务风险与金融风险的传导路径，实现区域系统性风险联防联控提供理论支撑和政策依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 To implement the financial security strategy and prevent systemic risks under the intertwined local government debt risk and financial risk, this paper analyzes the multiple feedback structure and interaction mechanisms of the dynamic evolution of risk based on the complex system theory, and constructs a system dynamics model of the interaction between local government debt risk and financial risk. It also selects the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 for empirical simulation to explore the sensitivity factors and degree of risk system in the eastern, central and western regions under the impact of different policy scenarios. The findings are shown as follows. Firstly, house prices and property tax revenue are the key influencing factors for the interactive transmission between local government debt risk and financial risk. Secondly, from the perspective of the direction of action, the fluctuation of house prices has an inverse relationship with local government debt risk and a positive relationship with financial risk, while property tax revenue is inversely related to local government debt risk and presents uncertainty with financial risk. Thirdly, from the perspective of effect, the decline in house prices has the strongest effect on local government debt risk, followed by the reduction of property tax revenue, while the rise in house prices has the strongest effect on financial risks, followed by the decrease in property taxes revenue. Besides, from the perspective of sensitivity, the decline in house prices is more sensitive than the rise in house prices on systemic risk, while the increase in property tax revenue is more sensitive than the decrease in property tax revenue; and the western region is the most sensitive to house price regulation policies, while the eastern region is the most sensitive to property tax regulation policies. The findings may provide theoretical support and policy basis for effectively blocking the transmission path of local government debt risk and financial risk and realizing joint prevention and control of regional systemic risk.更多还原