【摘要】 【目的】研究城市交通突出的供需矛盾引起的常发性交通拥堵。【方法】针对多变量、多反馈、非线性城市交通复杂系统，采用系统动力学方法研究治堵措施与城市交通系统的互动关系。首先，确定系统的边界与要素之间的相互关系，绘制因果关系图；然后，基于系统流程图构建结构方程，并对模型进行有效性检验；最后，根据长沙市城市交通实际，基于系统动力学模型分析机动车限行、公交都市等单一措施的治堵效果和其对环境的影响，并通过组合治堵措施的正交试验，寻找城市交通治堵措施的最优组合方案。【结果】通过模型仿真提出了长沙市城市交通治堵措施的最优组合方案。【结论】城市交通治堵措施的实施对缓解城市交通拥堵具有显著作用，但不同治堵措施对治堵效果的影响相差较大。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Purposes] The paper aims to study the frequent traffic congestion caused by the prominent contradiction between supply and demand of urban traffic. [Methods] Aiming at the multi-variable, multi-feedback and nonlinear urban traffic complex system, the method of system dynamics was used to study the interactive relationship between the measure of remission congestion and urban traffic system. Firstly, mutual relationship between the boundary and the element of the system was determined to draw the causal diagram. Then, the structural equation was proposed based a system stock-flow diagram and the validity of the model was tested. Finally, according to current traffic of Changsha City, the effect of traffic congestion control and environmental impact of single measure such as traffic restriction and transit metropolis were analyzed based on the system dynamics model, and the orthogonal test of the combined congestion control measures was performed to find the optimal combination scheme of the urban traffic congestion control measures. [Findings] The optimal scheme of urban traffic congestion control measures in Changsha City was proposed through the simulation of the model. [Conclusions] The implementation of urban traffic congestion control measures has a significant effect on alleviating urban traffic congestion, but the impact of different congestion control measures on congestion control effect varies greatly.更多还原