【摘要】 RCEP的生效实施将重塑区域产业分工格局，中国制造业的发展也将深受影响。在分析中国制造业贸易发展现状基础上构建GTAP模型，并将RCEP关税承诺表进行量化，从而模拟预测出RCEP关税削减对中国制造业的贸易影响。研究发现，RCEP关税削减将促进中国制造业进出口规模扩大，中国与其他RCEP成员国的进出口比重将显著提升;中国中高及高技术制造业产品对进口贸易依赖性会有所下降，但出口优势也将受到削弱;中国制造业贸易增长比率与RCEP税收力度削减比率成正比关联，最终进口关税大小、贸易双方的竞争互补关系会进一步影响关税削减对贸易的促进作用;虽然中国制造业出口增长，但国内销量的下降也会导致产出削减。中国应通过攻克产业发展短板以持续提升制造业出口竞争力，规划制造业合作重点强化与其他RCEP国家的贸易互补性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The implementation of RCEP will reshape the regional division of labor and greatly affect the development of China’s manufacturing industry. This paper constructs the GTAP model based on the analysis of the development status of China’s manufacturing trade and predicts the trade impact of RCEP tariff reduction on China’s manufacturing by quantifying the RCEP tariff commitment table. Results show that: Tariff reduction in RCEP will promote the expansion of China’s manufacturing import and export scale,especially with other RCEP member countries. China’s medium-high-and high-technology manufacturing products will be less dependent on import trade,but the export advantage will be weakened. The growth rate of China’s manufacturing trade is basically proportional to the rate of RCEP tax reduction,but the final import tariff and the competition and complementarity between the two sides of trade will further affect the promotion effect of tariff reduction on trade. While exports are rising,falling domestic sales will also cut into China’s manufacturing output. Therefore,China should constantly improve the export competitiveness of manufacturing by overcoming industrial development weaknesses and plan manufacturing cooperation priorities to strengthen trade complementarity with other RCEP countries.更多还原