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环境生态与未来全球气候变化的关联性分析与预测

Analysis and prediction of the correlation between environmental ecology and future global climate change

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【作者】 何博文关群

【Author】 HE Bowen;GUAN Qun;Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Vanderbilt University;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Hefei University of Technology;

【通讯作者】 关群;

【机构】 范德堡大学土木与环境工程系合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院

【摘要】 文章应用全球气候模型,探究环境生态中有关CO2排放量与未来全球气候变化的关联性,分析并预测未来全球气候的变化趋势。采取控制变量的方法即向模型系统输入3种不同的CO2排放情景,应用EdGCM软件模拟计算CO2在正常排放和极端排放情况下,地表大气温度、降雨量和积雪覆盖率3个不同的环境生态表征量对于CO2排放的反馈;在对模拟结果进行分析与比较基础上,预测CO2排放对未来全球气候变化的影响程度。研究结果可为全球各地区制定相关的环境政策提供参考。

【Abstract】 The correlation between CO2 emissions associated with environmental ecology and future global climate change is investigated in this study using a global climate model, as well as the analysis and the prediction of future global climate change trend. The feedback of multiple different environmental ecology performance metrics(surface air temperature, precipitation and snow cover ratio) to CO2 emissions is investigated by using the EdGCM simulation software with the method of controlling variables under three different CO2 emissions scenarios. Based on the analysis and the comparison between simulation results, the prediction of the impact of CO2 emissions on future global climate change is made, aiming to provide a reference for global environmental related policies formulation.

【基金】 安徽省自然科学基金资助项目(2108085MD136)
  • 【文献出处】 合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版) ,Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Natural Science) , 编辑部邮箱 ,2022年06期
  • 【分类号】X16;P467
  • 【下载频次】650
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