【摘要】 采用生态网络分析方法构建中国天然气供应安全网络模型,从区域合作视角和系统层面,确定天然气供应系统边界与节点路径,对输入输出及分组间流量进行量化;采用构建的中国天然气生态网络模型,基于网络信息、网络结构与网络效用等角度,评价2006—2020年中国天然气供应系统网络稳定性水平、网络不同节点贡献权重与网络共生水平;设计3种情境,即分别在控制其他条件不变的情况下减少外部来源、减少国内消费量、增加国内天然气产量,考察不同情境对我国天然气供应系统安全性的影响。结果表明:2006—2020年不同节点对整个天然气供应系统的影响从大到小依次为供应源、消费部门、提炼和储备部门,随着我国管道和液化天然气的进口,天然气供应网络中节点之间的联系更密切,我国整体天然气供应安全水平稳步提高,网络共生性水平较稳定;我国天然气进口来源过于集中,进口安全不确定性有待提升。为发送我国天然气供应安全程度,建议如下措施:保障内部供应来源,提高国内天然气生产能力;加强区域合作,采取多元化进口策;优化天然气消费结构,降低能源强度;加强战略储备建设,降低能源风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 The model of China’s natural gas supply security network was established by ecological network analysis method. From the perspective of regional cooperation and system level, the boundary and node path of the natural gas supply system were determined, and the input, output and inter-group flow were quantified. Based on the perpective of network information, network structure and network utility, the stability level, contribution weight of different nodes and symbiosis level of natural gas supply system in China from 2006 to 2020 were evalated by using the constructed China natural gas ecological network model. Three scenarios were designed, namely, reducing external sources, reducing domestic consumption and increasing domestic natural gas production under the same control of other conditions. The influence of different scenarios on the security of China’s natural gas supply system was investigated. The results show that during the period of 2006—2020, the influences of different nodes on the whole atural gas supply system are supply source, consumer sector, refining and reserve department in order. With China’s import of pipeline and liquefied natural gas(LNG), the connection between nodes in the gas supply network becomes closer, and the overall security level of gas supply steadily is improved in China, and the network has a relatively stable level of symbiotic. China’s natural gas import sources are too concentrated, and the uncertainty of import safety needs to be improved. In order to improve the security of China’s natural gas supply,it is suggested that ensuring internal supply sources and improving the domestic natural gas production capacity,strengthening regional cooperation and adopting diversified import policies, optimizing natural gas consumption structure and reducing energy intensity, strengthening the construction of natural gas strategic reserves and reducing energy risks.更多还原