【摘要】 配电设备易受地震影响，快速预测地震发生后配电设备损毁概率，有利于尽快开展应急抢修，尽快复电。从灾前模拟的角度出发，研究了配电设备地震灾损预测方法。使用蒙特卡洛方法模拟地震震级与震源点坐标，结合可靠性理论，以我国东部某地区配电网为例进行了地震灾损预测模拟，得到了该配电网总体与各线路损毁程度。分析得出震级与震中距是影响配电设备地震灾损的主要原因，配电设备损毁程度随震级上升、震中距减小而逐渐增加，且线路故障率也是影响配电设备综合损毁程度的主要影响因素。该结论可为配电网地震灾害防治与应急抢修工作提供辅助与参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Distribution network equipment is vulnerable to earthquakes.Rapid prediction of the damage probability of power distribution equipment after an earthquake is conducive to carrying out emergency repair and restoring power as soon as possible.From the perspective of pre disaster simulation,the earthquake disaster loss prediction method of distribution equipment is studied.Using Monte Carlo method to simulate earthquake magnitude and focal point coordinates,combined with reliability theory,taking a distribution network in eastern China as an example,the earthquake disaster damage prediction simulation is carried out,and the overall distribution network and the damage degree of each line are obtained.The analysis shows that the magnitude and epicenter distance are the main reasons affecting the earthquake damage of distribution equipment.The damage degree of distribution equipment gradually increases with the increase of magnitude and the decrease of epicenter distance,and the line fault rate is also the main factor affecting the comprehensive damage degree of distribution equipment.The conclusion can provide assistance and reference for earthquake disaster prevention and emergency repair of distribution network.更多还原