【摘要】 目前对于配电变压抗短路能力评价主要是依据短路承受能力试验结果,但该试验存在对变压器本身造成损伤的风险。针对该问题,提出利用蒙特卡洛模拟和综合评判法对配电变压器抗短路能力进行综合评估,考虑配电变压器的原材料、制造工艺和短路受力3个方面的影响因素,构建一个全面的综合评价模型。该模型结合层次分析法和熵权法构建综合权重,可以弥补传统有限元方法仅考虑短路承受力的片面性和传统专家评估法缺乏客观性等不足。采用该模型对3台不同容量的配电变压器进行评估,并与现场短路承受能力试验结果进行对比。3台配电变压器的评估结果与试验结果一致,表明基于蒙特卡洛模拟和综合评判法的配电变压器抗短路能力评估模型具有较高的可靠性和实用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, the evaluation of short-circuit resistance ability of the distribution transformer is mainly based on the test results of short-circuit withstand ability, but there is a risk causing damages to the transformer in this test. To solve this problem, this paper proposes to use Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to comprehensively evaluate short-circuit resistance ability of the distribution transformer. Considering the influence of raw materials, manufacturing process and short-circuit stress of the distribution transformer, it constructs a comprehensive evaluation model, which combines the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and the entropy weight method to construct the comprehensive weights, and makes up for the one-sidedness of traditional finite element method only considering the short-circuit stress and the lack of objectivity of the traditional expert evaluation method. The model is used to evaluate three distribution transformers with different capacities, and the results are compared with the short-circuit withstand test results. The evaluation results of three distribution transformers are consistent with the test results, which shows that the evaluation model of short-circuit resistance ability of the distribution transformer based on Monte Carlo simulation and comprehensive evaluation method has higher reliability and practicability.更多还原