【摘要】 目的 基于朴素贝叶斯算法（Naive Bayes,NB）构建成都社区严重精神障碍（Severe Mental Disorder,SMD）患者暴力行为预测模型，并探索其应用价值。方法 从成都市精神卫生防治管理信息系统中获取2017至2019年SMD患者个案管理数据52 601例及相应随访信息、应急处置记录，使用MacArthur社区暴力工具、修订版外显攻击行为量表对患者随访期间的暴力行为进行量化评估。采用单因素Logistics回归分析筛选暴力行为的关联因素。将样本按照68%、17%、15%的比例划分为训练集、验证集、测试集，基于NB建立SMD患者暴力行为的预测模型。运用5折分层交叉验证法检验模型的内部效度，将测试集输入到模型中检验模型的外部效度。结果 基于NB建立的成都市社区SMD暴力行为预测模型内部效度的受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）为0.757(95%CI:0.734～0.780)，外部效度的AUC为0.755，平衡准确度为0.710，准确度为0.721，敏感度为0.697，特异度为0.722。结论基于NB建立的成都市社区SMD患者暴力行为预测模型具有良好的效度，可为暴力行为的预测提供新的方法和思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To establish a predictive model based on Naive Bayes(NB) for violent behavior of patients with severe mental disorder(SMD) in Chengdu community and explore its application value. Methods The case management data of 52,601 SMD patients from 2017 to 2019 from Chengdu Mental Health Prevention and Control Management Information System was obtained, including follow-up information on patients as well as emergency disposition record. MacArthur community violence instrument and Modified Overt Aggression Scales were used to evaluate the violent behavior of SMD patients during the follow-up period. Univariate logistics regression analysis was used to screen the associated factors of violent behavior. The data were divided into training set, validation set and test set at the proportions of 68 %, 17 % and 15 % respectively. The prediction model of violent behavior was established based on NB algorithm. The stratified 5-Fold cross-validation was used to test the internal validity of the model. The test set into the model to verify the external validity of the model was input. Results For the NB-based SMD violence prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC) of the internal validity was 0.757(95 % CI: 0.734～0.780). AUC of external validity was 0.755, balance accuracy was 0.710, accuracy was 0.721, sensitivity was 0.697, specificity was 0.722, positive predictive value was 0.024, negative predictive value was 0.996. Conclusion The NB-based prediction model of SMD patients’ violence in Chengdu has good validity, which can provide new methods and ideas for the prediction of violent behavior.更多还原