【摘要】 以河南省四大流域为研究对象，基于2000—2020年社会经济统计数据和水资源利用数据，运用耦合协调模型和灰色预测GM(1,1)方法等，对四大流域水资源开发利用和经济社会发展进行系统评价和耦合协调度分析。结果表明：(1)2000—2020年四大流域经济社会发展水平差异较大；水资源利用效率差异逐渐减小，呈波动变化趋势；流域间水资源利用和经济社会发展相互作用呈现明显差异。(2)2000—2020年四大流域水资源利用和经济社会发展耦合协调度均呈波动上升趋势，耦合协调水平向良性发展，但各流域耦合协调指数均在2012年呈现出明显的拐点。(3)2022—2035年四大流域水资源利用和经济社会发展将继续向着协调有序的方向前进，但达到高水平耦合协调仍需较长时间，同时，流域间两大系统相互作用的差异仍将存在。更多还原

【Abstract】 Taking the four major basins of Henan Province as the research object, based on the socio-economic statistical data and water resources utilization data from 2000 to 2020, this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for economic and social development and water resources utilization, and systematically evaluates and analyzes the coupling coordination degree of water resources development and utilization and economic and social development of the four watersheds of Henan Province by using entropy method, comprehensive index method, coupling coordination model and Grey Prediction GM(1,1) method. The results show that:(1) The level of economic and social development of the four watersheds varies greatly from 2000 to 2020; the difference of water resources utilization efficiency decreases gradually, showing a fluctuation trend; there are obvious differences in the interaction between economic and social development and water resources utilization among watersheds.(2) From 2000 to 2020, the coupling and coordination degree of water resources and economy and society in the four watersheds showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the coupling and coordination level developed healthily, but the coupling and coordination index of the four watersheds showed an obvious inflection point in 2012.(3) From 2022 to 2035, the water resources utilization system and economic and social development system of the four major watersheds will continue to move towards the direction of coordinated, synchronous and orderly development, but the improvement speed will slow down, it will still take a long time to achieve the final high-quality coordination, and the differences between watersheds will still exist.更多还原