【摘要】 基于2001—2019年中国A股上市公司对外直接投资(OFDI)数据，本文从实物期权视角实证分析不确定性对中国企业OFDI设立模式选择的影响。研究发现：不确定性与绿地投资正相关，这种模式使企业能够在保持上行潜力的同时降低下行风险；不可逆性、竞争性和增长机会等因素对不确定性都具有调节作用；随着不确定性的增加，在高不可逆性行业中的企业会倾向于绿地投资模式，在竞争强度大和高增长的行业中倾向于采用跨国并购模式。异质性分析发现，在选择OFDI设立模式时，国有企业对经济不确定性不敏感，第三产业受政策不确定性影响最大，在发达国家中政策不确定性影响不显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the outward foreign direct investment(OFDI) data of China A-share listed companies from 2001 to 2019, this paper empirically analyzed the impact of uncertainty on the choice of OFDI establishment mode from the perspective of real option. The results show that uncertainty is positively correlated with greenfield investment, because this mode enables firms to reduce downside risk while maintaining upside potential and that factors such as irreversibility, competitiveness and growth opportunities all have moderating effects on uncertainty. As uncertainty increases, enterprises in high irreversible industries tend to adopt greenfield model while those in high-competitive and high-growth industries tend to adopt the mode of cross-border merger and acquisition. Through heterogeneity analysis, it is found that when choosing the establishment mode of OFDI, state-owned enterprises are not sensitive to economic uncertainty, and the tertiary industry is most affected by policy uncertainty whereas in developed countries the impact of policy uncertainty is not significant.更多还原