【摘要】 蛇足石杉是国家二级重点保护野生植物，目前面临生物资源骤减的威胁。该研究基于蛇足石杉在中国的分布数据和气候数据构建组合模型，预测蛇足石杉当前和未来(2070)气候情景下在中国的适生区，通过ERDAS和ArcGIS计算适生区面积及质心变化，探究气候变化对蛇足石杉适生区的影响，为蛇足石杉的保护提供理论依据。结果显示：(1)组合模型AUC值大于0.9,预测结果极好。(2)影响蛇足石杉适生区的主要生物气候变量是最湿月降水量、温度季节性、最冷季均温和最暖月最高温。(3)蛇足石杉当前总适生面积226.99×10~4 km~2,中、高适生区面积154.51×10~4 km~2,质心均位于湖南省西部。(4)蛇足石杉未来总适生面积变化不大，中、高适生区面积剧烈收缩，在RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0及RCP8.5情景下分别净收缩14.34%、23.31%、31.63%和47.08%,总适生区质心和中、高适生区质心均向西北方向转移。研究表明，蛇足石杉中、高适生区受气候变化影响很大，未来随着排放水平升高将逐渐转变为低适生区和非适生区。更多还原

【Abstract】 Huperzia serrata is a class Ⅱ national key protected wild plant, of which the biological resources is rapidly reducing at present. Based on climate data and the distributed data of H. serrata in China, our study built ensemble models to predict the suitable region of H. serrata in current and future(2070) climate scenarios in China, and used ERDAS and ArcGIS to calculate the changes of the area and centroid of suitable region, to explore the impact of climate change on the suitable region of H. serrata, which could provide theoretical basis for the protection of H. serrata. The results showed that:(1) the AUC value was greater than 0.9, which meant an excellent prediction.(2) The main bioclimatic variables affecting the suitable region of H. serrata were precipitation of wettest month, temperature seasonality, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and max temperature of the warmest month.(3) The total suitable region of H. serrata was 226.99×10~4 km~2 in current, the area of moderately and highly suitable regions was 154.51×10~4 km~2, the centroids were located in western Hunan Province.(4) The total suitable region of H. serrata has little changed, but the area of moderately and highly suitable region has contracted sharply, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, the moderately and highly suitable region have net contracted 14.34%, 23.31%, 31.63% and 47.08%, respectively, all the centroids have changed to the northwest. In conclusion, the area of moderately and highly suitable region in China was affected by climate change, and it would gradually change into unsuitable region and lowly suitable region with the increase of emission levels in future.更多还原