【摘要】 目的:探讨不同肥胖指标预测中老年人2型糖尿病风险的效果，并对指标联合的预测结果进行比较。方法:采用横断面调查方法收集2015年7～8月蚌埠市龙子湖区(共7个社区，以户为单位) 2 596位中老年人，对体质量指数(BMI)、腰围臀围比值(WHR)、腰围身高比值(WHtR)和脂质蓄积指数(LAP)、人体肥胖指数(BAI)、身体形态指数(ABSI)6种肥胖指标进行标准化转换，应用Logistic回归分析所得OR值，比较各指标与糖尿病患病风险情况；采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)下的面积(AUC)比较各指标预测2型糖尿病风险的价值，并分析不同性别下各指标及其指标联合对糖尿病风险的预测能力。结果:男性调整年龄、饮酒、糖尿病家族史后，单个肥胖指标中LAP对糖尿病风险预测效果最好，OR(95%CI)为2.212(1.412-3.466),AUC值是0.588。指标联合预测效果较好的是LAP和BMI, AUC为0.605。女性调整完年龄、饮酒、糖尿病家族史和高血压后，单个肥胖指标中LAP预测效果最好，OR(95%CI)为4.147(2.787-6.171),AUC值是0.675。指标联合预测效果较好的是LAP和WHtR,AUC为0.692。结论:BMI、WHR、WHtR、LAP、BAI、ABSI与糖尿病关系密切，其中单个肥胖指标预测糖尿病的价值最佳是LAP;指标联合中，男性推荐组合LAP和BMI,女性建议LAP联合WHtR进行糖尿病风险预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective:To investigate the effect of different obesity indexes on predicting the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in middle-aged and elderly people, and to compare the prediction results of combined indexes. Methods:A cross-sectional survey was conducted to collect 2 596 elderly people from seven communities in Longzihu District of Bengbu City from July to August 2015, and six obesity indexes, including body mass index(BMI), waist-hip ratio(WHR), waist-height ratio(WHtR), lipid accumulation index(LAP), body adiposity index(BAI), and a body shape index(ABSI), were standardized and transformed. The OR value obtained by logistic regression analysis was used to compare each index with the risk of diabetes. The area under receiver(AUC) operating characteristic curve(ROC) was used to compare the value of each index in predicting the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus, and the predictive ability of each index and its combination under different genders on the risk of diabetes was analyzed. Results:After adjusting for age, alcohol consumption and family history of diabetes, LAP was the best predictor of diabetes risk in single obesity index, OR(95 %CI) was 2.212(1.412-3.466), AUC was 0.588. LAP and BMI had the better joint prediction effect, and AUC was 0.605. After adjusting for age, drinking, family history of diabetes and hypertension, LAP was the best predictive effect in single obesity index, OR(95 %CI) was 4.147(2.787-6.171), AUC was 0.675. The combination of LAP and WHtR had better prediction effect, AUC was 0.692. Conclusion:BMI, WHR, WHtR, LAP, BAI, and ABSI are closely related to diabetes, among which the best value of individual obesity indexes to predict diabetes is LAP. In the combination of indexes, the combination of LAP and BMI is recommended for men, and combine LAP with WHtR is recommended for women for diabetes risk prediction.更多还原