【摘要】 以六安市为研究区域，基于2000、2010、2020年3期土地利用数据，利用GMOP-PLUS耦合模型模拟多情景下的2030年土地利用空间分布格局，定量分析了六安市2000—2030年土地利用变化及景观生态风险时空演变特征。结果表明：（1）2000—2020年，建设用地、水域和未利用地面积有所增加，且变化幅度较大，其他各类用地面积均有所减小。（2）2030，年在自然发展与经济发展情景下，建设用地规模相较于2020年有一定的扩展趋势；而在经济-生态发展情景下，建设用地扩展得到了一定的限制，耕地和林地面积减少趋势得到缓和，水域面积保持相对稳定。（3）2000—2020年，景观生态风险平均指数呈现先增后减的特征，整体生态环境良好，以低、较低和较高风险为主。（4）2030年，3种情景下的景观生态风险平均指数较2020年均有所增大，其中生态-经济发展情景下增幅最小，高生态风险区面积最小，低生态风险区面积最大。研究结果可为六安市土地资源可持续利用及生态风险防控提供一定的科学依据和决策参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Taking Lu’an City as the study area, based on the land use data of 2000, 2010 and 2020, the spatial distribution pattern of land use in 2030 was simulated by GMOP-PLUS coupling model, and the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of land use change and landscape ecological risk in Lu’an City from 2000 to 2030 were quantitatively analyzed. The results show that:(1) from 2000 to 2020, the area of construction land, water area and unused land increased and changed greatly, while the area of other types of land decreased.(2) under the scenario of natural development and economic development in 2030, the scale of construction land has a certain expansion trend compared with 2020, while under the scenario of economic-ecological development, the expansion of construction land has been restricted to a certain extent. The decreasing trend of cultivated land and woodland area has been moderated, and the water area has remained relatively stable.(3) from 2000 to 2020, the average landscape ecological risk index increased at first and then decreased, which was mainly low, low and high risk, and the overall ecological environment was good.(4) in 2030, the average landscape ecological risk index of the three scenarios is higher than that of 2020, in which the increase is the smallest in the eco-economic development scenario,the smallest in the area of high ecological risk and the largest in the area of low ecological risk. The research results can provide some scientific basis and decision-making reference for the sustainable use of land resources and ecological risk prevention and control in Lu’an City.更多还原