【摘要】 本文沿用经典的世代交叠一般均衡框架,将育儿成本内生化,并分析相应的育儿补贴政策与公共教育政策对经济增长和代际不平等的影响。研究发现,在政府预算平衡条件下,育儿补贴的政策强度与育儿补贴税和公共教育税均正相关,前者为直接效应,后者则为间接效应。基于理论模型得到的经济增长拉弗曲线揭示了育儿补贴税和公共教育税对经济增速的非线性影响,这隐含了最优税率的存在。本文结合中国实际数据的校准分析表明,理论模型的数值分析结果很好地刻画了中国经济增长的实际情况。进一步的政策模拟显示,当前中国的育儿补贴和公共教育支出水平都低于相应的最优水平,还有提升空间;然而政府部门在调整育儿补贴和公共教育支出政策时,可能在经济增速与代际不平等之间面临权衡。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper internalizes the cost of child-rearing and analyzes the effect of the subsidy policy and public education policy on economic growth rate by constructing an overlapping generation equilibrium model.In our model, the policy intensity of child-rearing subsidies is positively related to child-rearing subsidy tax(direct effect)and public education tax(indirect effect).Additionally, The Growth Laffer Curves based on the model reveal non-linear influences from child-rearing subsidy tax and public education tax on economic growth rate, which implies the existence of optimal tax rates.We then calibrate the model to Chinese economy and find that both of the real child-rearing subsidy tax rate and public education tax rate could be increased, for they are lower than their optimal levels.However, there is a trade-off between economic growth rate and intergenerational inequality for the governments in the policy adjustment of child-rearing subsidy and public education.更多还原