【摘要】 台风破坏性巨大,易与暴雨、洪涝、风暴潮灾害发生碰头现象,严重威胁沿海地区人民的生命和财产安全。因此,台风减灾决策研究对于保护人民生命财产安全至关重要。该文基于系统动力学和多灾种灾害建立防灾减灾模型,包括物资人员调度子块、信息传递子块、灾害系统子块。以海南省海口市台风灾情及政府防灾减灾工作为例进行数值模拟,仿真结果表明:政府资源调度能力越高,城市应急能力达到峰值速率越快;受预警等级及应急能力的影响,信息热度迅速上升至峰值,之后缓慢下降;对建筑物与电力系统进行抗灾加固,降低其脆弱性,提高水库堤坝及交通防灾减灾工作人员配比可以在很大程度上减缓灾情。该模型能为政府制定防灾减灾策略提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Typhoon is destructive and easy to occur together with the rainstorm, flood and storm surge, which seriously threatens people’s life and property safety in coastal areas. In this paper, based on system dynamics and multi-disaster the prevention and mitigation model of typhoon disaster is established, including material and personnel scheduling sub block, information transmission sub block, disaster system sub block. Taking the typhoon disaster situation and government disaster prevention and mitigation work in Haikou City of Hainan Province as an example, the simulation results show that, the higher the government resource scheduling ability, the faster the city emergency response capacity reaches the peak speed; affected by the early warning level and emergency response capacity, the information heat rises rapidly to the peak value, and then decreases slowly; the disaster resistance and reinforcement of buildings and power system can reduce their vulnerability, and increase the proportion of reservoir dams and traffic disaster prevention and mitigation workers can be greatly reduced Disaster situation. In a word, the proposed model can provide an effective disaster reduction strategy for governments.更多还原