【摘要】 运用混合线性模型(Linear Mixed Model)对中国足球协会超级联赛2012—2018赛季1 406场比赛的运动表现进行分析,结合数据级数推断理论与Cohen’s d效应量理论,对比球队在不同比赛结果中各项表现指标的差异。1)比赛获胜球队的进攻组织效率明显高于平局或失利球队,在射门、射正、传中、传球成功率、向前传球成功率方面存在显著差异。失利和平局球队虽然在传球数量上占据优势,但成功率较差,转换成射门的效率不理想,说明组织进攻效率取决于传球的成功率而非数量。2)50-50争抢成功率、犯规和越位的显著性优势说明获胜球队在攻防战术组织上更积极,更具有侵略性。同时,在个人对抗能力方面也存在相应差距。3)冲刺跑距离、冲刺跑次数、控球时高强度跑距离是获胜球队的关键表现指标。4)获胜球队在控球时完成更多冲刺跑和高速跑,并伴随更高的进攻效率,失利球队在比赛中将大量高强度工作消耗在防守方面,不论上、下半场冲刺跑和高速跑都集中在非控球时。更多还原

【Abstract】 A total of 1 406 matches across a 7-season period in the Chinese Football Association Super League were analyzed. The technical and physical data were quantified by the Linear Mixed Model. Differences in match profiles among the three different results were evaluated based on the Magnitude-base Inference Data Theory and Cohen’s d. Results showed that: 1) The winning team had a significantly higher efficiency in the offensive organization than that of other teams, including: shots, shots on target, crosses, successful passes rate and forward pass success rate. The losing and the drawing team had advantage in the number of passes, while the success ratio was low and seldom convert to shots. It indicated that the efficiency of the offensive organization depended on the success ratio of pass rather than the number. 2) The significant advantages of 50-50 duel won rate, fouls and offside indicated that the winning teams were more aggressive in the offensive and defensive organization. Meanwhile, the gap between different individual abilities should be considered. 3) Sprint distance, number of the sprint, and high-intensity run distance when possession were the key performance indicators of the winning teams in the Chinese Football Association Super League. 4) The winning teams completed more sprints and high-speed run while possession,with higher offensive efficiency. The losing team covered more high-intensity activities in defensive behavior, sprints and high-speed run were completed while not in possession, either in the first half or in the second half.更多还原