【摘要】 本文在分析经济政策不确定性对宏观经济跨国传导机制的基础上,运用TVAR模型和反事实分析法,实证考察了美国经济政策不确定性对中国宏观经济的非对称冲击效应及影响机制。研究发现,在不确定性较低时,美国经济政策不确定性对中国产出增长产生显著的负向冲击效应;而在不确定性较高时,美国经济政策不确定性对中国产出增长存在显著的正向冲击效应。进一步分析表明,在不确定性较低时,美国经济政策不确定性冲击主要通过引起中国经济政策不确定性上升对产出增长产生负向效应;而在不确定性较高时,美国经济政策不确定性冲击主要通过增加中国短期国际资本流入对产出增长产生正向效应。本文的研究对当前我国应对日趋复杂的国际经济环境、制定宏观审慎政策、维护宏观经济稳定性具有重要的启示意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the analysis of the international transmission mechanism of economic policy uncertainty to macro-economy, this paper uses TVAR model and counterfactual analysis method to empirically investigate the asymmetric effect of US economic policy uncertainty on China’s macro-economy and its influencing mechanism. The results are as follows.(1) In low-uncertainty regime, US economic policy uncertainty has a significant negative impact on China’s macro-economy; while in high-uncertainty regime, US economic policy uncertainty has a significant positive impact on China’s macro-economy.(2) Further, the counterfactual analysis indicates that in low-uncertainty regime, US economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on China’s macro-economy by causing the increase of Chinese economic policy uncertainty; while in high-uncertainty regime, US economic policy uncertainty has a positive impact on China’s macro-economy by increasing China’s short-term international capital inflow. This paper is of great enlightenment for China to formulate macro-prudential policies and maintain macroeconomic stability to cope with the increasingly complex international economic environment.更多还原