【摘要】 目的以全面二孩政策为背景,结合时间序列分析方法,探索儿科诊疗工作量的变化规律并提供政策建议。方法收集某省级三甲儿童医院HIS 2012—2018年月门诊量和住院量数据,导入Excel 2010中观察2012—2018年度变化情况,计算1—12月季节指数;导入SPSS16.0中绘制时间序列图、构建自回归滑动平均混合(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型,分析预测模型的拟合度。结果 2012—2018年门诊量和住院量均逐年增长,年均增长率分别为9.59%和10.80%。门诊最高峰为12月、最低峰为2月,住院最高峰为8月、最低峰为2月。门诊量模型为ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0),住院量模型为ARIMA (1,1,0)(0,1,1),其预测结果与实际值平均绝对百分比误差分别为6.64%和5.36%。结论全面二孩政策后门诊从"暑期就诊高峰"逐步转为"冬季就诊高峰",儿科医疗资源较短缺问题逐年加剧。管理者需结合诊疗规律,结合ARIMA模型等时间序列方法科学预测评估资源缺口,做好统筹规划。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To explore the pattern of pediatric workload with time series analysis method,and provide suggestions under the universal two-child policy background. Methods Calculating the annual growth rate and the seasonal index of outpatient and inpatient visits from 2012 to 2018. Importing data into SPSS16.0 to draw time series diagram and construct ARIMA model,and analyzing the fitting degree prediction mode. Results The number of outpatient and inpatient visits increased with an average annual growth rate of 9.59% and 10.80% respectively. The peak of outpatient visits was December,the low peak was February;the peak of inpatient visits was August,the low peak was February. ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0),and ARIMA(1,1,0)(0,1,1) were used to predict the amount in2018. The mean absolute percentage error of ARIMA models were 6.64% and 5.36%,respectively. Conclusion Temporal trends of pediatric workload before and after the universal two-child policy is different,in which outpatient service gradually changes from"summer peak"to"winter peak". The shortage of pediatric medical resources is increasing.Hospital managers need to scientifically predict and evaluate the resource gap with time series methods,so as to make overall planning.更多还原