【摘要】 习近平总书记指出,要推动形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。然而,部分海外媒体及国内学者对双循环新发展格局仍存在误读,对于外需在中国经济中的地位和作用的认识存在不足。通过对当前国家统计局基于净出口视角测算外需贡献率的方法进行深入分析,结果表明,国家统计局公布的外需贡献率数据低估了外需对经济增长的贡献。基于新框架的测算结果显示,当前外需对经济增长仍有较大贡献。据此,政策建议:一是继续促进形成强大国内市场;二是持续推动供给侧结构性改革;三是继续推进高水平对外开放;四是在高水平对外开放中重视经济安全。更多还原

【Abstract】 General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed that we should promote the formation of a new development pattern based on the domestic big cycle as well as the domestic and international dual circulation. However, some overseas media and domestic scholars misread the new development pattern, and have insufficient understanding of the position and role of external demand in China’s economy. This paper makes an in-depth analysis of the current method of measuring the contribution rate of external demand by the National Bureau of Statistics based on the perspective of net export. The results show that the contribution rate of external demand published by the National Bureau of Statistics underestimates the contribution of external demand to economic growth. Based on the new framework, the results show that the current external demand still has a greater contribution to economic growth. In terms of policy recommendations, firstly, it’s necessary to continue to promote the formation of a strong domestic market; secondly, it’s necessary to continue to promote supply side structural reform; thirdly, it’s necessary to continue to promote high-level opening-up; fourthly, it’s necessary to attach importance to economic security in the high-level opening-up.更多还原