【摘要】 目的评价GM(1,1)模型在血糖预测中的性能,分析该模型对不同范围血糖数据的预测能力。方法以50例2型糖尿病(T2DM)患者的连续72 h血糖序列为研究对象,基于新陈代谢算法建立GM(1,1)模型,预测5、15、30 min后的血糖。将50例患者随机分成对照组20例和实验组30例,观察分析对照组数据得到预测误差较低时的血糖范围(a～b),以此范围将实验组数据分为A组(<a)、B组(a～b)、C组(> b),采用Pearson相关性分析、非参数检验进行分析。结果对照组筛选出预测时长为5、15、30 min时的血糖范围分别为3.4～11.5、3.3～11.4、3.2～11.4 mmol/L。相关性分析显示,不同预测时长时,B组的预测拟合度均最好(P <0.01)。非参数检验表明,同一预测时长的组间预测误差比较,差异有统计学意义(P <0.01),其中A组的预测误差最小,B组次之,C组最大。结论 GM(1,1)模型对3.4～11.4 mmol/L的血糖数据预测效果更好。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To evaluate performance of GM (1,1) model in predicting blood glucose,and the predictive ability of this model for prediction of different blood glucose ranges. Methods Seventy-twohour blood glucose sequence of fifty patients with T2DM was selected as study objects. GM (1,1) model was established based on the metabolic algorithm to predict blood glucose levels after 5,15 and 30 min. Fifty patients were randomly divided into control group (n = 20) and experimental group (n =30). The blood glucose range (ranging from a to b) when the prediction error was low in the control group was obtained. According to the blood glucose range of the control group,the data of the experimental group was divided into group A (< a),group B (a to b),and group C (> b). Analysis was performed by Pearson correlation analysis and nonparametric test. Results The blood glucose ranges for prediction duration of 5 min,15 min and 30 min in the control group were 3. 4 to 11. 5 mmol/L,3. 3 to 11. 4 mmol/L and 3. 2 to 11. 4 mmol/L,respectively. Correlation analysis showed that group B at differed prediction durations had the best predictive fit (P < 0. 01). Nonparametric tests indicated that there was a statistical difference in prediction error between groups at the same prediction duration (P <0. 01),and the group A had the minimum error,followed by group B,and group C had the maximum error. Conclusion GM (1,1) model has better predictive efficacy at blood glucose range of 3. 4 to 11. 4 mmol/L.更多还原