【摘要】 在经济不确定性日益加剧的背景下,理解家庭借贷行为的变动及其规律具有重要意义。从本地经济不确定性视角出发,采用加权合成方法构建本地经济不确定性指数,并检验了本地经济不确定性对家庭借贷行为的影响及其作用机制。结果表明:本地经济不确定性与家庭债务增长存在正向关系,这种关系在高不确定性区域中更显著;房价变化和收入波动机制是本地经济不确定性影响家庭债务变动的重要渠道,且前者所起的作用更大;对于拥有多套住房以及户主在国有企业工作的家庭而言,其借贷行为受本地经济不确定性的影响更显著。政府应当从降低经济不确定性引发的房价与家庭失业风险入手,稳定家庭部门杠杆,从而有效地防范区域金融风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the background of increasing economic uncertainty, it is of great significance to understand the changes and laws of household borrowing behavior. From the perspective of local economic uncertainty, this paper uses the weighted composite method to construct the local economic uncertainty index, and tests the impact and mechanism of local economic uncertainty on household borrowing behavior. The results show that there is a positive relationship between the local economic uncertainty and the growth of household debt, which is more significant in the high uncertainty regions; the change of house price and the income fluctuation mechanism are the important channels for the local economic uncertainty to affect the change of household debt, and the former plays a greater role. For families with multiple housing units and heads of households working in state-owned enterprises, the impact of local economic uncertainty on their borrowing behavior is more significant. The government should start from reducing the risk of house price and family unemployment caused by economic uncertainty to stabilize the leverage of family sector so as to effectively prevent regional financial risks.更多还原