【摘要】 量化中国工业部门的能源消耗情况、探讨能源消耗的驱动因素以及分析能源消耗的脱钩状态,对工业部门实现节能降耗目标与经济可持续发展具有重要的指导意义。为此,基于2005—2016年中国工业35个分行业总产值与9种主要能源消耗的面板数据,通过构建VALDEX指数衡量中国工业部门的节能情况,进而将改进后的Kaya恒等式与对数平均Divisia指数分解法(LMDI)相结合,创新性地构建一个能源消耗因素分解模型,并在此基础上,结合DPSIR框架构建脱钩努力指数模型,对工业行业经济增长与能源消耗的脱钩效应进行测度。研究结果表明,中国工业部门的节能率以边际递减的速率上升;能源结构效应与产出规模效应导致能源消耗增加,而能源强度效应与经济产出结构效应减少能源消耗;此外,近年来中国工业经济增长与能源消耗呈脱钩状态,但强脱钩行业少且脱钩指数值小,具体表现为:能源强度效应和经济产出结构效应是实现强脱钩的关键因素,而能源结构效应阻碍脱钩的实现。降低能源强度、调整经济产出结构以及优化能源结构是当前中国工业部门实现节能降耗的重要举措。更多还原

【Abstract】 Quantifying the energy consumption of China’s industrial sector, exploring the driving factors of energy consumption and analyzing the decoupling state of energy consumption have important guiding significance for the industrial sector to achieve energy saving and consumption reduction goals and sustainable economic development.Therefore, based on the panel data of thirty-five sectors of Chinese industry and nine major sources of energy consumption from 2005 to 2016,the energy saving of Chinese industrial sector is measured by constructing the VALDEX index.Combining the improved Kaya identity with the logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI) decomposition method to innovatively construct an energy consumption factor decomposition model.On the basis, the decoupling effort index model, combined with the DPSIR framework, is constructed to measure the decoupling effect of industrial economic growth and energy consumption.The results show that the energy structure effect and output scale effect are the main factors leading to the increase of energy consumption in China’s industrial sector, while the energy intensity effect and economic output structure effect are the key factors to reduce energy consumption.Recent years, China’s industrial energy consumption has been decoupling, but the number of strong decoupling industries is small and the decoupling index is low.The energy intensity effect and the economic output structure effects are the key factors in realizing strong decoupling, while the energy structure effect hinders the realization of decoupling.At present, reducing energy intensity, adjusting economic output structure and optimizing energy structure are important measures to achieve energy conservation and consumption reduction in the industrial sector of China.更多还原