【摘要】 以安徽省耕地资源利用变化为研究对象，在分析1989～2018年近30年安徽省耕地资源数量、质量和粮食产量变化的基础上，从统计学的角度探寻耕地资源利用变化对粮食安全的内在影响机理。利用spass25.0软件，通过最小二乘法拟合构建线性回归模型，将耕地资源质量指标与粮食产量进行定量分析。结果表明:1989～2018年间，安徽省耕地资源总量和人均耕地面积时空变化差异显著，粮食总产量逐年增多，但是人均粮食占有量呈现增减交替波动变化。提出强化粮食安全意识，科学编制国土空间规划，加强粮食安全动态监测，提高粮食综合生产能力等提高安徽省粮食安全程度对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the analysis of the changes in the quantity, quality and grain yield of cultivated land in Anhui Province during the past 30 years from 1989 to 2018, to explore the internal influence mechanism of cultivated land use change on food security from the angle of statistics. Using spass25.0 software, a linear regression model was constructed by least squares fitting, and the cultivated land quality index and grain yield were Quantitative analysis. The results showed that from 1989 to 2018, the total amount of cultivated land resources and per capita cultivated land area in Anhui province had significant temporal and spatial variations. In order to improve the regional food security, we should strengthen the consciousness of food security, optimize the territorial space planning and constantly improve the system of permanent basic farmland demarcation, and steadily improve the comprehensive food production capacity.更多还原