【摘要】 根据目标管道的实际情况,将目标海底管道分为平台立管段、海域管段、人工岛登陆段3段,确定了第三方损坏、腐蚀、制造与施工缺陷、误操作4个一级风险因素,细化二级风险因素,建立了包含23个指标的风险评价指标体系。对指数和相加的方法进行改进,把各项风险分值进行归一化处理,量化至0～1之间,基于布尔代数,运用故障树的逻辑或原理,计算失效概率和泄漏影响系数,得到改进后的海底管道半定量风险评价模型,解决了传统模型中的风险值相加导致的风险遮蔽问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the actual situation of the target pipeline, the target submarine pipeline was divided into three sections,including the platform riser section, the sea area pipeline section and the artificial island landing section. The four first-level risk factors of third-party damage, corrosion, manufacturing and construction defects, and misuse were identified. The second-level risk factors were reduced, and a risk evaluation index system consisting of 23 indicators was established. The index and the addition method were improved. The risk scores were normalized and quantified to between 0 and 1. Based on Boolean algebra and logical OR idea, the probability of failure and the leak impact factor was calculated, and an improved semi-quantitative risk assessment model for submarine pipelines was obtained, and the problem of risk shielding caused by the addition of risk values in traditional models was solved.更多还原