【摘要】 为探究雅鲁藏布江奴下水文站以上流域在气候变化背景下的冰川融水规律,基于研究区数字高程模型（DEM）、冰川资料和气温数据,采用虚拟冰川法概化流域冰川,分析冰川面积沿高程分布规律,再利用度日模型分析冰川融水量的时间、高程变化。结果表明:（1）海拔5 000～6 300m之间是研究区内冰川的集中发育带,气温和山地面积对冰川面积的影响分别体现在6500m以下和5 700m以上。（2）选取区域度日因子9.1mm·d^-1℃^-1,气温直减率0.75℃/100m,1976～2015年冰川融水量呈现出小幅增加—小幅减少—大幅增加的趋势,年均冰川融水量为79.58×10⁸m³。（3）各高程处的冰川融水量受到气温和冰川面积的共同影响,海拔5 300m处的多年冰川融水量最大。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to explore the glacier meltwater patterns in the basin above Nuxia station of Yarlung Zangbo River under the background of climate change,based on the digital elevation model（DEM）,glacier data and temperature data in the study area,this paper applied the virtual glacier method to generalize the glaciers in the basin,and analyzed the distribution pattern of glacier area along the elevation,and then explained the temporal and elevation changes of glacier meltwater volume by using the degreeday model.The results show that:（1） The area between 5 000 and 6 300 m above sea level is the concentrated development zone of glaciers in the study area.The effects of temperature and mountain area on the glacier area are reflected below 6 500 m and above5 700 m,respectively.（2） With the regional degree day factor of 9.1 mm·d^-1℃^-1 and the temperature lapse rate of 0.75℃/100 m,the glacial meltwater volume from 1976 to 2015 showed a trend of small increase-small decrease-large increase,with an average annual glacial meltwater volume of 7.958 billion m3.（3） The amounts of glacial meltwater at different elevation are influenced by a combination of temperature and glacier area,with the greatest amount of multi-year glacial meltwater occurring at 5 300 m above sea level.更多还原