【摘要】 [目的]研究区域水—能源—粮食关联系统(WEFN)的协同发展状况,促进区域水、能源、粮食的可持续利用。[方法]基于复杂适应系统理论,从水、能源、粮食3方面构建区域WEFN协同发展评价指标体系,以协同进化算法、灰色关联等为基础提出一种基于各要素条件和相互作用机理的综合协同发展模型,并以黑龙江省为例测算2009—2018年WEFN的协同发展度及子系统的发展度、协同度,评价其协同发展状况。[结果](1)各子系统发展程度中等,差距较小,协同度差距较大但均呈波动上升趋势,其中水资源对能源和粮食、能源对粮食的协同作用明显。(2)WEFN协调发展状况中等,与各子系统协同发展趋势一致,波动上升后保持稳定,粮食子系统协同发展程度最高。(3)子系统间协同作用差是造成WEFN协同发展状况不高的原因,应以水、能源在农业生产中的高效应用为突破口,促进子系统间的协同发展。[结论]综合协同发展模型能够有效评价区域WEFN的协同发展状况,有助于区域可持续发展决策。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective] The synergistic development of the regional water-energy-food nexus(WEFN) system was studied in order to promote the sustainable utilization of regional water, energy, and food. [Methods] Based on the theory of complex adaptive systems, an evaluation index system of regional WEFN collaborative development was constructed from three aspects of water, energy, and food. A comprehensive collaborative development model was proposed based on the conditions of various elements and the interaction mechanism based on a co-evolution algorithm and gray correlation. Taking Heilongjiang Province as an example, the collaborative development degree of WEFN and the development degree and collaborative degree of its subsystems from 2009 to 2018 were calculated to evaluate the collaborative development status. [Results](1) The development degree of each subsystem was medium, and the gap was small. The collaborative degrees had a large gap, but all showed a fluctuating upward trend. Among them, the collaborative effect of water resources on energy and food, and energy on food was obvious.(2) The collaborative development of WEFN was moderate, consistent with the trend of various subsystems, and remained stable after rising fluctuations. The collaborative development of the food subsystem was the highest.(3) Poor collaboration between subsystems was the reason for the low level of WEFN coordinated development. The efficient application of water and energy in agricultural production should be used as a breakthrough to promote the coordinated development of subsystems. [Conclusion] The comprehensive collaborative development model can be effectively used to evaluate the collaborative development status of regional WEFN, and is helpful for regional sustainable development decision-making.更多还原