【摘要】 受全球气候变化与人类活动的共同作用,石羊河流域水文情势发生了较为显著的变化。探究石羊河流域径流的演变规律,是开展石羊河流域水资源适应性管理的基础,对保障流域水资源开发利用和促进区域可持续发展意义重大。以石羊河流域的重要支流西营河为例,分析1972—2019年九条岭水文站径流的变化特征,得到如下结论:径流量主要集中在每年5—9月,约占年平均径流量的80.5%。年内分配不均匀系数、完全调节系数呈下降趋势,说明在未来年份九条岭水文站流量的年内分配不均匀性可能降低、集中性可能减小。综合运用累积距平法、有序聚类检验法和滑动t检验法分析径流的突变性,确定九条岭水文站年径流量的突变年份为2002年。通过对比5a时段平均径流量的变差系数和极值比,发现时段平均径流量在2001—2005年变化最为显著,在1972—1975年变化最不显著。基于Morlet小波函数分析发现28a、11a为年径流量的第一、第二主周期。更多还原

【Abstract】 Influenced by global climate change and human activities, hydrological regime in Shiyang River Basin has undergone significant changes. Exploring runoff evolution laws is the basis for carrying out adaptive management of water resources in Shiyang River Basin, and it is of great significance for ensuring development and utilization of water resources in this basin and promoting regional sustainable development. The Xiying River, an important tributary of Shiyang River Basin, is taken as an example, and evolution laws of annual runoff of Jiutiaoling hydrological station are analyzed based on measured data from 1972 to 2019. Results show that runoff is mainly concentrated from May to September each year, accounting for about 80.5% of annual average runoff. Considering that nonuniformity coefficient and fully regulated coefficient of annual inflow distribution show a downward trend in past years, it is indicated that nonuniformity and concentricity of annual distribution may decrease in future years. The mutation year of Jiutiaoling hydrological station is 2002, through comprehensive applications of three methods including the cumulative anomaly method, the sequential cluster test and the sliding t test method. By comparing the variation coefficient and the extreme ratio of period average runoff, it is found that runoff had the most significant change from 2001 to 2005 and the least significant change from 1972 to 1975. In addition, 28 a and 11 a are the first and second main cycles of annual runoff by means of Morlet wavelet function.更多还原