【摘要】 在财政赤字和政策制度等压力下,地方政府"双二手"供地策略使得公共物品供给不均衡、产业结构升级滞后等问题日益突出,地区经济增长缓慢。本文基于2004～2017年全国282个地级市的面板数据,实证分析公共物品和产业结构门槛下土地财政对经济增长的影响,并进一步验证门槛效应的区域差异。研究结果表明:土地财政对经济增长的影响系数在跨过公共物品和产业结构第二门槛后分别下降了0.04、0.07;在跨过第二门槛值后,东中部地区土地财政对经济增长的影响系数普遍低于西部地区。由此可见,土地财政对经济增长具有明显的门槛效应,尤其是在东中部地区。具体影响路径包括公共基础设施的重复建设、房地产和低端制造业的无序扩张。提出了提高民生指标在官方考核中的比重、扩大节能环保产业土地供应、加强西部地区基础设施建设等政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 UOwing to the pressure of fiscal balance and political incentives,challenges,such as the abnormal supply structure of public goods and the lag of industrial structure upgrading caused by the land financial target,have become severe and they negatively affect economic growth.This study empirically analyzed the effect of land finance on economic growth under the threshold of public goods and industrial structure based on the panel data of 282 prefecture-level cities from 2004 to 2017 and further verified the regional differences in the threshold effect.The results showed the following:(1) the influence coefficient of land finance on economic growth dropped by 0.004 and 0.007 after crossing the second threshold of public goods and industrial structure;and (2) the influence coefficient of land finance on economic growth in the eastern and central regions is generally much lower than that in the western regions when the second threshold is crossed.Therefore,it is concluded that land finance has an evident threshold effect on economic growth,especially in the eastern and central regions,and the specific influencing paths include repeated construction of public infrastructure,disorderly expansion of real estate,and low-end manufacturing.This study presents some policy suggestions,such as improving people’s livelihood indicators in an official assessment,expanding the energy-saving and environmental protection industry land supply,and strengthening infrastructure construction in western regions.更多还原