【摘要】 农村低保是后小康时代重要的反贫困手段,其瞄准精度直接关系到稀缺的政策资源能否流入应保家庭,低保瞄准的社区参与+代理家计调查法能有助于解决上述难题。使用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据的模拟结果表明:在低保户初选方面,以社区瞄准为主的现行方法的瞄准率随贫困人口比例增加而提高,因此适用于应保人口比例较高的情形;但应保人口比例越低,社区参与+代理家计调查法越优于代理家计调查法和现行方法,因此更适用于应保人口比例较低的后小康时代。在低保资格复查方面,社区参与+代理家计调查法的准确率同样随应保人口比例降低而提高,且始终优于上述两种方法。而且家计调查越严格,社区参与+代理家计调查法的初选表现和复查表现越佳。因此,在应保家庭比例较低的后小康时代,低保瞄准方式应从以社区瞄准为主向社区参与+代理家计调查法转变,并提高代理家计调查的严格程度,同时应灵活选择具有较强指示作用的代理指标。更多还原

【Abstract】 Rural minimum subsistence allowance is an important anti-poverty measure in the post-well-off period, and its targeting accuracy is directly related to whether scarce policy resources can flow to the insured families. This paper proposes a community participation and agent household survey method to optimize the targeting performance of rural minimum subsistence allowance policy. The simulation results using CFPS data show that: in terms of the primary election, the targeting rate of the current method which mainly contains community targeting increases with the increase of the proportion of poor people, so it is suitable for the situation with a high proportion of poor people. However, the lower the proportion of poor population, the better the community participation and agent household survey method is than the agent household survey method and the current method. Therefore, it is more suitable for the post-well-off period. In terms of the review, the community participation and agent household survey method always performs better than the above two methods and performs even better with a lower rate of family that should be insured. Moreover, the stricter the agent household survey is, the better the primary and review performance of community participation and agent household survey are. Therefore, in the context of the gradual reduction of the proportion of the poor population, the targeting method of rural minimum subsistence allowance should be changed from community targeting to community participation and agent household survey method, and the severity of agent household income survey should be improved. Meanwhile, the index with strong indicator function should be selected.更多还原