【摘要】 从贫困脆弱性这一前瞻预测指标视角出发,利用2016-2018年中国家庭动态追踪调查(CFPS)数据,分析灵活就业人员贫困情况,使用分位数回归与倾向得分匹配实证研究政府转移支付对灵活就业人员贫困脆弱性影响,并运用中介效应分析政府转移支付对灵活就业人员贫困脆弱性的传导机制。研究结果发现,社会贫困线标准下灵活就业人员相对贫困现象较为严重,灵活就业人员贫困脆弱状况严重,大部分灵活就业人员无法摆脱贫困脆弱状态;政府转移支付在2016年的任一贫困标准下,能够显著降低灵活就业人员的贫困脆弱性,但是2018年政府转移支付对贫困脆弱性的影响效应明显减弱,而且对于不同类型的贫困人群存在明显的异质性,减贫效应有限。通过传导机制检验,发现政府转移支付通过储蓄效应和私人转移支付的"挤入"效应来进一步减缓灵活就业人员贫困脆弱性。更多还原

【Abstract】 From the perspective of poverty vulnerabilities, a forward-looking forecast indicator, this paper uses 2016-2018 China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data to analyze the poverty situation of informal employees, quantile regression and propensity score matching were used to empirically demonstrate the impact of government transfer payment on the poverty vulnerability of informal employees, and the mediating effect was used to analyze the transmission mechanism of government transfer payment on the poverty vulnerability of informal employees.The results of the research show that under the social poverty line standard,the relative poverty of informal employees is more serious,and their poverty and vulnerability are very serious. Most informal employees cannot get rid of poverty and vulnerability; Second,under any poverty standard in2016,government transfer payment can significantly reduce the poverty vulnerability of people with informal employment,but in 2018,the impact of government transfer payment on poverty vulnerability is significantly weakened,and there is obvious heterogeneity among different types of poor informal employees,with limited poverty reduction effect. Third,through the test of transmission mechanism,we found that the government transfer payment further alleviates the poverty vulnerability of informal employees through the savings effect and the"crowding in"effect of private transfer payment.更多还原