【摘要】 ?ngstr?m-Prescott模型是基于日照的最佳太阳辐射（R_s）模型,但由于缺乏模型参数,其应用往往受到限制。为了获得山东省准确的模型参数,本文采用FAO推荐值和根据地理位置、多年平均温度等数据拟合的四种参数化方程,在山东省有实测太阳辐射数据的3个站点（福山、济南和莒县）应用?ngstr?m-Prescott公式计算太阳辐射值,并与实测值和校正参数预测值进行比较。结果表明:（1）3个站点中,福山参数模型估算效果最好,莒县次之,济南最差。福山、莒县和济南的决定系数R²分别在在0.9559～0.9661、0.9358～0.9397及0.9083～0.9115之间,但决定系数R²都在0.9以上,不同参数化方法预测的R_s与实测值相关性较高;（2）公式1参数模型估算太阳辐射值效果最好。该公式的平均偏差（MBE）、均方根误差（RMSE）及相对均方根误差（PRMSE）分别在-4.54×10^-5～1.23×10^-3 MJ/（m²/d）、0.021～0.078 MJ/（m²/d）及15.23%～55.40%之间,和校正值比较接近,FAO推荐值估算精度较低,其估算精度远低于公式1。因此,在山东省可以用公式1(a=5.43742×10^-4H+0.149 b=0.00964×?-0.62367)即用海拔和经度较为精确的预测太阳辐射。更多还原

【Abstract】 The ?ngstr?m-Prescott model is an optimal solar radiation （R_s） model based on sunlight,but its application is often limited due to the lack of model parameters.In order to obtain the accurate model parameters of Shandong Province,the angstron-Prescott formula was used to calculate the solar radiation values at three stations （Fushan,Jinan and Juxian） in Shandong Province,using the recommended FAO values and four parameterized equations fitted according to the data of geographical location and annual average temperature.The results were compared with the measured values and the predicted values of the correction parameters.The results show that:（1） Among the three stations,the estimation effect of fushan parameter model is the best,Ju County is the second,and Ji’nan is the worst.The coefficient of determination （R²） of Fushan,Juxian and Jinan are in the range of 0.9559～0.9661,0.9358～0.9397 and 0.9083～0.9115,respectively.However,the coefficient of determination （R²） are all above 0.9.The correlation between R_s predicted by different parameterization methods and measured values is high.（2） Formula 1 has the best effect in estimating the solar radiation value.The mean deviation （MBE）,the root mean square error （RMSE） and the relative root mean square error （PRMSE） of the formula are between -4.54×10^-5～1.23×10^-3 MJ/（m²·d）,0.021～0.078 MJ/（m²·d） and 15.23%～55.40%,respectively.And the correction value are close,and the estimation accuracy of FAO recommended value is low,which is far lower than formula 1.Therefore,formula 1 (a=5.43742×10^-4H+0.149 b=0.00964×?-0.62367) by altitude and longitude can be used to accurately predict the solar radiation in Shandong Province.更多还原