【摘要】 文章利用2019-06-20—2019-06-21甘肃省酒泉市气象观测资料和NCEP/NCAP(1°×1°)再分析资料,基于溃变理论对甘肃省酒泉市1次极端暴雨进行了预报分析研究,得到以下结论:此次暴雨过程受到河套地区歪脖子高压脊阻挡和青海低涡前部动力抬升影响;基于溃变理论,制作未来时刻的大气垂直结构位温(θ)、假相当位温(θse)、饱和假相当位温(θ*)、比湿和垂直速度5种物理量,衍生为69个特征量,以此描述V-3θ图,确定此次暴雨过程的时间和提前量,但衍生出的V-3θ降水预报图对暴雨范围、降水量级的计算有待提高。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the meteorological observation data and NCEP/NCAP(1°×1°)reanalysis data from June 20,2019 to June 21,2019 in Jiuquan city of Gansu province,an extreme rainstorm is forecast and analyzed based on the collapse theory.The conclusions are as follows:the rainstorm process is blocked by the high pressure ridge of the crooked neck in Hetao area and the dynamic uplift in front of the Qinghai vortex.Based on the collapse theory,five physical quantities of atmospheric vertical structure potential temperature（θ）,pseudo-equivalent potential temperature（θse）,saturated pseudo-equivalent potential temperature（θ*）,specific humidity and vertical velocity at future time are derived into 69 characteristic quantities to describe V-3θ diagram.The time and advance of this rainstorm process are determined,but the calculation of rainstorm range and precipitation level by the derived V-3θ precipitation forecast map needs to be improved.更多还原