【摘要】 自2008年以来,美联储为走出次贷危机和金融危机,实施了量化宽松的货币政策。这种非常规货币政策提振了经济,但造成系列潜在风险。美国前总统特朗普在任期内加大宽松力度,推出现代货币理论(MMT)和财政赤字货币化,但未能力挽狂澜。美国现任总统拜登执政百日内迅速拋出"21世纪版的罗斯福新政",加速赤字、债务和通胀扩大,使其极度宽松政策的潜在风险从隐性变为显性。2021年美国经济增长率、通胀率及核心通胀率等系列数据,让美联储承受逆向调整货币政策压力。美联储何时调整其货币政策及调整力度有多大,受到多种因素综合权衡的影响。各国应高度提防和应对美联储货币政策"变与不变"的溢出效应带来的挑战与风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 2008,the Federal Reserve has implemented a quantitative easing monetary policy in order to get out of the subprime mortgage crisis and financial crisis.This unconventional monetary policy boosted the economy,but created a series of potential risks.Former U.S.President Trump stepped up easing during his tenure,introduced Modern Monetary Theory(MMT)and monetized fiscal deficits,but was unable to turn the tide.The current U.S.President Biden quickly threw out the“21 st Century Roosevelt New Deal”within100 days of his governance,which accelerated the expansion of deficits,debts,and inflation,turning the potential risks of extremely easing policies from implicit to explicit.A series of data on the US economic growth rate,inflation rate,and core inflation rate in 2021 will put the Fed under pressure to adjust its monetary policy in the opposite direction.When the Fed adjusts its monetary policy and how hard it adjusts is,it is affected by a comprehensive balance of many factors.Countries should be highly aware of and respond to the challenges and risks brought about by the spillover effect of the Fed’s monetary policy“changes and unchanged”.更多还原