【摘要】 经验数据和理论逻辑都表明组建最优货币区能够促进区域经济的趋同和一体化,但是外部冲击可能会使这个趋势逆转。本文试图扩展考察的时间视野,避免仅依据短期趋势进行研判并给出一般性结论,分析造成一体化波动的深层次原因,进而说明欧元区发展的长期趋势和可能挑战。研究发现,由于成员国之间在经济结构和贸易结构方面的差异,相同的外部冲击会给各成员国带来不同的影响,但最终会回到原有的趋同路径上。本文还提出了一个波动发展的理论分析框架并结合各国的经验数据进行了说明。由于成员国的结构性差异和外部冲击都是不可避免的,所以欧元区将呈现出波动发展的局面。但不可否认的是,欧元区也面临持续的严峻挑战。更多还原

【Abstract】 Both empirical data and theoretical logics suggest that the establishment of Optimal Currency Area could promote integration and convergence of regional economy,while external shocks may reverse the trend. By extending time horizon,this paper tries to avoid making conclusions on the basis of short-term evidence and to focus on the causes behind fluctuating integration before coming to a conclusion about the future trend and possible challenge of the Eurozone. In this paper,it is found that differences in economic structures and trade patterns have brought different outcomes in different member countries after the same shock,who will,however,finally return to the path of convergence. This paper also provides a theoretical framework to demonstrate the mechanism for the fluctuating integration which is illustrated by the relevant data of the member countries. Since both the structural differences between the member states and external shock are inevitable,the fluctuating integration will be the normal path in the Eurozone. However,it is undeniable that real challenge of divergence in effective exchange rate among member countries in Eurozone will persist.更多还原