【摘要】 面对暴雨预报精细化难题,利用商丘地区汛期暴雨的数值模式和实况降水资料对商丘地区的暴雨进行检验。采用2017—2020年的Micaps数据资料,利用对比分析等方法检验ECthin模式和日本模式在商丘区域性暴雨落区和强度预报的误差。结果表明:无论暴雨降水量级还是落区,EC-thin模式预报具有较好的指导意义,暴雨预报准确率高,临近预报效果较好,但稳定性较差。而日本模式稳定性较好,暴雨漏报率高,预报量级偏小,误差较大,且两种模式均存在对特大暴雨量级以上的暴雨漏报问题。因此,预报员应重点参考EC-thin模式,日本模式作为辅助参考。EC-thin模式预报暴雨降水中心强度来看,整体比实况偏小;暴雨落区比实况多数偏西。EC-thin模式对副热带高压强度的预报较实况偏弱,即预报场的副热带高压西伸脊点的位置多数较实况场偏东,是副高外围强对流天气形成的暴雨漏报的主要原因。在比湿方面,大比湿区拟合较好,量值比实况偏大,但对暴雨的预报具有良好的指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Faced with the problem of refined rainstorm forecast, the rainstorm in Shangqiu area is validated by using the numerical model of Rainstorm in flood season and the actual precipitation data. This paper explore the differences between EC-thin model and Japan model in rainstorm forecast by using comparative analysis and other methods based on the MICAPS data of Shangqiu City from 2017 to 2020, and focus on the validation of EC-thin model. The results show that the EC thin model is of great significance in both precipitation magnitude and area. The accuracy of rainstorm forecast is high, and the effect of near forecast is good, but the stability is poor. The Japan model is stable and the accuracy of forecast is poor, and both of them have the problem of missing report for rainstorm with extra heavy rainfall. Therefore, forecasters should focus on the EC-thin model, Japan model can be used as an auxiliary reference. From the point of view of the intensity of precipitation center predicted by the model, the predicted value of EC-thin model is smaller than the actual value.The prediction intensity of subtropical high is weaker than the observed data of EC-thin mode, that is to say, the location of the western extension ridge of the subtropical high in the forecast field is more eastward than the observed field. In the aspect of specific humidity, the overall forecast intensity of the model is larger than the actual situation.更多还原