【摘要】 石羊河流域中游流量变化对该地节水灌溉、水资源高效利用、生态治理和水土保持都具有极其重要的意义。采用趋势系数和模比系数分析了石羊河流域中游流量的变化和丰枯特征,并用Mann-Kendall法进行突变检验,最后采用Pearson相关系数法分析了该区域流量变化的主要气候因素。结果表明:近57年来,石羊河流域中游年平均流量呈略增加趋势,各年代基本都是平水年,其中春、夏季流量呈略减少趋势,秋、冬季流量呈增加趋势,流域中游年平均流量增加贡献最大的是秋季;从年内分布看,石羊河流域中游流量的年内分配因受补给条件的影响四季分明,四季流量大小依次为夏季、秋季、春季、冬季;石羊河流域中游流量,年、春季流量出现多个突变点,夏、秋、冬季流量突变分别发生在1991、2015和2016年;流域中游流量变化的主要影响因子依次是降水、蒸发、最高和最低气温。随着流域中游降水的增加趋势大于气温升高和蒸发增加的幅度,同时伴随气温升高,冰川消融加快,石羊河流域中游流量呈略增加趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 The change of discharge in the middle reaches of the Shiyang river basin is of great significance for water-saving irrigation, efficient utilization, soil and water conservation, ecological management of water resources and ecological management. In this paper, the trend coefficient and the modulus ratio Coefficient are used to analyze the variation of the discharge in the middle reaches of the Shiyang river basin, with the M-K mutation detection and Pearson correlation coefficient method is used to analyze the main climatic factors of discharge variation in this region. The average annual discharge in the middle reaches of the Shiyang river basin has increased slightly in the past 57 years, with no change in each decade, and the annual discharge has decreased in spring and summer slightly. According to the annual distribution, the annual distribution of the discharge in the middle reaches of the Shiyang river basin is affected by the replenishment conditions in four distinct seasons, with the discharge in summer, autumn, spring and winter. The maximum discharge occurs in July, minimum traffic in February. The annual and spring discharge in the middle reaches of the Shiyang river basin had many abrupt changes, and the abrupt change mainly occurred in 1991, 2015 and 2016, respectively. Precipitation, evaporation, maximum and minimum air temperature are the main influencing factors of discharge variation in the middle reaches of the basin.With the increase of precipitation in the middle reaches of the basin more than the increase of temperature and evaporation, and with the increase of temperature and glacier melting, the discharge in the middle reaches of the Shiyang river basin increased slightly.更多还原