【摘要】 为解决多场景保护层分析(LOPA)存在的问题,建立风险矢量导图,将事故场景、独立保护层、修正因子、事故后果发生频率等因素进行系统分析,分别采用最大值法求和法计算后果发生频率,探讨多重初始事件导致事故发生频率的最优计算方法;阐述点火源、暴露因子以及致死概率等修正因子的使用方法并提出改进建议,避免常规LOPA下致死概率过高的问题。以柴油加氢装置原料油缓冲罐液位过高风险点为例,进行多场景LOPA,应用综合计算法得出多重初始事件导致的液位高后果失效频率为3.2E-02。结果表明:风险矢量导图和正确使用修正因子可有效提高LOPA的质量;不同初始事件导致的场景失效频率值相差较大或存在共用保护层的情况适用最大值法,其他情况则可采用求和法;如果多场景同时适用最大值法和求和法,则采用综合计算法;求和法过于保守,最大值法过于乐观,综合计算法更为准确。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to solve the problems of multi-scenario protection layer analysis(LOPA) analysis,by establishing a risk vector map,the accident scene,independent protection layer,correction factor,accident consequence frequency and other factors were systematically analyzed,and the maximum value method and the summation method were used to calculate the accident consequence frequency,respectively,and the optimal calculation method for the frequency of accident caused by multiple initial events was discussed.The use methods of the ignition source,exposure factor,fatal probability and other correction factors were elaborated,and the improvement suggestions were proposed to avoid the problem of high fatal probability under the conventional LOPA analysis.Taking the risk point of excessively high liquid level in the raw oil buffer tank of a diesel hydrogenation unit as an example,the multi-scenario LOPA analysis was carried out,and the comprehensive calculation method was used to find that the failure frequency of the high liquid level caused by multiple initial events was 3.2 E-02.The results showed that the risk vector map and the correct use of correction factors could effectively improve the analysis quality of LOPA.The maximum value method was applicable when the scene failure frequency values caused by different initial events were quite different or there was a shared protection layer,and the summation method might be used in other cases.If multiple scenarios applied the maximum value method and the summation method at the same time,the comprehensive calculation method was adopted.The summation method was too conservative,the maximum value method was too optimistic,and the comprehensive calculation method was more accurate.更多还原