【摘要】 受季风气候影响,我国长江中下游地区年内"早涝急转"问题突出,过度依赖地表水供水和不断增长的用水需求,导致该地区季节性水资源供需失衡问题愈发严峻。以南昌市为例,基于系统动力学方法,建立南昌市水资源供需平衡的系统动力学模型,并从地表水-地下水联合使用的角度出发,综合考虑经济社会发展和气候变化,设置9种模拟情景,开展南昌市地下水应急供水方案模拟研究。结果表明:(1)经济社会维持现状发展时,稳定型、下降型和上升型气候条件下南昌市地下水应急供水需求量分别为52.04万m~3/d、63.62万m~3/d和44.55万m~3/d;(2)仅考虑经济社会快速发展时,南昌市地下水应急供水需求量相比现状型平均增加20.65万m~3/d,稳定型和下降型气候条件下应急水源地地下水水位降幅超过含水层厚度的2/3,不利的气候条件下南昌市地下水应急供水难以支撑经济社会快速发展;(3)实施节水措施后,南昌市地下水应急供水需求量相比现状型平均减少14.48万m~3/d,上升型气候条件下地下水应急供水需求量最小,为26.74万m~3/d,且对地下水系统的影响最小,因此实施节水措施十分必要。更多还原

【Abstract】 Affected by the monsoon climate, the "drought-flood abrupt alternation" during the year in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China is a serious problem.Excessive reliance on surface water supply and increasing water demand cause increasingly severe seasonal water supply and demand imbalance in the region.Taking Nanchang City for an example, this paper establishes Nanchang City water resource supply and demand balance system dynamics model based on the system dynamics method.From the perspective of the combined dispatching of surface water and groundwater, the paper sets up 9 scenarios with comprehensive consideration of economic and social development and climate change, and carries out the study of emergency groundwater supply plan.The results are as follows:(1)When the economic society continues to maintain the status quo, the emergency groundwater supply demand under stable, descending and ascending climatic conditions is 52.04×10~4,63.62×10~4 and 44.55×10~4 m~3/d, respectively;(2)Only considering the rapid economic and social development, the emergency groundwater supply demand increases by 20.65×10~4 m~3/d on average compared with status quo scenario, the groundwater level decreasing amplitude of emergency water resources field under stable and descending climate conditions are more than 2/3 of the aquifer thickness, and the emergency groundwater supply under adverse climate conditions cannot support the rapid economic and social development;(3)After the implementation of water saving mea-sures, the emergency groundwater supply demand reduces 14.48×10~4 m~3/d on average compared with status quo scenario, emergency groundwater supply demand under ascending climatic conditions is the smallest, with 26.7×10~4 m~3/d, and the impact on the groundwater system is the smallest.Therefore, implementing water-saving measures is very necessary.更多还原