【摘要】 基于专利地域性保护原则和创新主体采取的全球专利布局战略思想,提出利用专利全球布局数据进行技术预测的新思路。选择2015—2019年的专利数据及其全球专利战略布局数据,设计了技术预测模型;并选择全球辐射能技术进行了实证分析。研究发现,在未来的辐射能领域全球竞争中,美国将占有更大的优势;日本的优势明显下降。与当前阶段相比较,在未来阶段主要创新主体的变化比较明显,尤其是LG电子公司值得高度关注。无论从国家层面还是从创新机构层面,中国都需要加强专利的全球布局战略,提升技术创新的国际竞争实力。本研究在理论和方法层面,为产业技术预测提供了新的思路和方法;在实践层面,对我们全面把握全球辐射能技术创新的当前状况和未来趋势、更好地部署能源产业发展战略,具有重要的现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 We propose a new method of technical forecasting by using patent global layout data based on the principle of regional patent protection and the strategic idea of global patent layout adopted by the innovative subjects. We select the patent data of the last five years(2015—2019) and the data of global patent strategy layout, and design a technical forecasting model, and do empirical analysis in the field of global radiant energy technology. It is found that the United States will have a greater advantage in the future global competition in the field of radiant energy. The advantage of the Japanese has declined markedly. The major innovative subjects in the future stage will change significantly comparing with the current stage, especially LG electronics deserves high attention. China needs to strengthen the global layout strategy of patents and enhance the international competitiveness of technological innovation no matter from the national level or from the level of innovation institutions. This study provides a new way of theory and method for industrial technical forecasting from the theoretical and methodological aspects. In practice, it is of great practical significance for us to fully grasp the current situation and future trend of global radiant energy technology innovation and better deploy the development strategy of energy industry.更多还原