【摘要】 本文运用我国外汇储备和人民币中间价汇率,从外汇市场直接干预和"逆周期"因子两个方面考察2005—2020年人民币汇率浮动恐惧的程度和方向变化。研究表明,随着汇改的推进,人民币的浮动恐惧正在逐渐减弱,且以"811"汇改为分界点,从升值恐惧转为贬值恐惧。央行基本退出了常态化干预,中间价已成为引导市场预期回归稳定的新工具。当面对更强的贬值压力时,中间价的逆周期调整力度降低,说明人民币的浮动容忍度正在提高。本文认为,汇改不一定需要时间表,但需要路径图,央行应培养适合"清洁浮动"的经济环境和必要的基础设施建设,择时并主动地退出固定汇率制。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using foreign exchange reserve date and fixing rate data, this paper analyzes the level and direction of Renminbi’s fear of floating from 2005 to 2020 from the perspectives of direct intervention in the foreign exchange market and adjustment by the countercyclical factor. The paper finds that the level of Renminbi’s fear of floating is decreasing with the improvement of exchange rate policy reforms. Specifically, the fear of floating of Renminbi turned from "fear of appreciation" to "fear of depreciation" after the 2015 "811" exchange rate reform. The PBC has also basically exited normal direct intervention, and the fixing rate has become a new tool in guiding market expectations back to stability. When under stronger depreciation pressure, the countercyclical adjustment in the fixing rate is smaller, which implies the rising tolerance for Renminbi floating.The paper also suggests a timetable for exchange rate reform is not necessarily, but a roadmap is crucial. The PBC should improve the economic environment and necessary infrastructures for a "clean floating", and exit from the fixed exchange rate regime at a right time.更多还原