【摘要】 与已有基于混合截面数据和流动人口样本的研究不同,本文采用2013—2015年中国家庭金融调查的面板数据,从本地户籍劳动力流出视角研究了空气污染对其跨区县流出和跨国流出的影响,并借此讨论大气污染带来的劳动力区域再配置效应和存量效应。研究结果表明:(1)消除个体固定效应对结果的影响偏差后,空气污染对本地户籍劳动力跨区县流出效应较已有研究显著缩小。PM2.5增加1μg/m~3,本地户籍劳动力流出区县的概率显著上升0.094个百分点,仅为现有研究的1/4。(2)相比之下,空气污染带来更大的劳动力跨国流出效应,显著降低一国劳动力的存量。PM2.5每增加10%,移民倾向增加28%。(3)从区域配置上看,空气污染使劳动力在空间上进一步集聚,劳动力从经济落后地区向发达地区、从中西部向东部、从二三线城市向一线城市流动。(4)空气污染降低劳动者的劳动参与率、就业率以及工资水平,并对因空气污染而流出的劳动者影响更大。(5)空气污染对劳动力流出的影响具有显著的异质性。对有环保意识和关注信息的劳动者,空气污染的影响更大。空气污染对家庭经济地位和学历更高的劳动者影响更大。更多还原

【Abstract】 The free flow of labor is an important prerequisite for achieving high-quality and efficient allocation of human resources, and also an important link to promote high-quality reforms in economic development. However, air pollution caused by economic growth may have an adverse impact on the optimal allocation of labor. This paper focuses on the impact of air pollution on labor mobility, and examines the regional allocation effect of labor caused by air pollution and the stock effect of labor outflow across the country.By combining the air quality data of 338 cities during 2013-2015 and the micro-individual data of the China Household Finance Survey 2013-2015, and using the fixed effects model, we reach the following main conclusions.(1) Air pollution is an important factor leading to the outflow of labor across regions and counties. The empirical results show that air pollution has a significantly positive effect on labor outflow. The annual average PM2.5 increases by 10%, and the probability of local registered labor outflow from counties increases significantly by 0.65 percentage points. From the perspective of regional allocation, air pollution has caused more labor flows out of backward areas from the central and western regions to the southeast coast, and from second and third-tier cities to first-tier cities. The spatial concentration of labor is further enhanced.(2) Air pollution will bring about a significant transnational labor outflow effect, thereby reducing a country’s labor stock. The results show that annual average PM2.5 increases by 10%, and the immigration probability increases by 28%.(3) Air pollution has a significant impact on the outflow of families with incomes above the 60 th quantile, non-rural household registered and environmentally sensitive laborers and those with high educational level. In other words, at this stage, air pollution mainly affects high-skilled workers with the ability to move freely, but it does not rule out that it will further affect the migration of other types of workers in the future.(4) From the perspective of labor market performance, air pollution significantly reduces labor force participation rate, employment rate and wage level of laborers, and has a greater impact on laborers who flow out due to air pollution. The empirical results in this paper are still robust after various robustness tests.This paper has four policy implications. First, air pollution has reduced the labor market performance. In addition to bringing health benefits to residents, government regulations on environmental pollution also increase labor market access, such as increasing labor force participation rate, employment rate, and wage income. Second, air pollution brings a significant cross-border outflow of human capital. Compared with the regional allocation effect of labor caused by air pollution, this has a greater damage to a country’s human capital stock. Third, air pollution has aggravated the spatial allocation effect of labor. In areas with sound economic development, the agglomeration effect brought by high wages is more obvious, while the impact of air pollution is not significant. Fourth, from the perspective of impact differences, no matter for regional allocation effect of labor or the stock effect, air pollution has a greater impact on laborers with high educational level and high incomes. When providing subsidies for air pollution, the government should fully consider the differences in the sensitivity of residents with different characteristics to air pollution and their importance to economic development, and design differentiated subsidy policies.This paper makes innovation in the following ways. First, significantly different from previous research, it provides a relative exogenous recognition basis, which relies on the difference between the two periods of air quality improvement faced by each individual. Second, in terms of the research content, the existing research mainly focuses on the impact of air pollution on the floating population, lacking the research on the impact of the outflow choice of laborers with local household registrations and further analysis based on various characteristics of the labor market. Based on the labor force participation, employment probability and wage level of the outflow population and the non-floating population in the labor market, this paper examines the impact of air pollution for the first time, and investigates the regional allocation effect of labor and stock effect of labor force brought by air pollution. The existing literature mostly analyzes heterogeneity from the basic population characteristic variables such as age, sex and educational level. On the basis of previous studies, this paper has made further development. It is the first to examine the different responses of the labor force to air pollution based on residents’ environmental awareness and information attention, as well as the heterogeneity of environmental impacts on residents’ outflow based on family economic status and family demographic characteristics. Third, in terms of research method, the existing research mostly adopts the instrumental variable method, but this paper examines the impact of environmental information disclosure on labor outflow for the first time by using the gradual disclosure of air quality data from 2013 to 2015, PSM-DID regression, and the fix effects model.更多还原