【摘要】 本文旨在考察"一带一路"倡议对"一带一路"沿线国家产业结构升级的影响,在构建"一带一路"倡议影响沿线国家产业结构升级作用机制框架的基础上,基于49个沿线国家和65个非沿线国家2006—2018年的面板数据,采用倾向得分匹配与双重差分相结合的方法对"一带一路"倡议影响沿线国家产业结构升级的政策效应进行评估。实证结果表明,"一带一路"倡议在总体上能够显著促进沿线国家产业结构朝着高级化和合理化的方向发展。进一步分析表明"一带一路"倡议的政策效果具有"滞后"特征,随着时间推移,其影响程度和效果有增大趋势,并且"一带一路"倡议对不同收入水平以及不同区域位置沿线国家的产业结构升级效应存在显著异质性;在"一带一路"倡议下,通过扩大双边贸易往来、加强双边产能合作、积极推进沿线国家基础设施互联互通等途径,可以促进沿线国家产业结构优化升级,相比较而言,通过双边产能合作渠道对沿线国家产业结构升级的促进效果最大,贸易往来渠道次之,基础设施互联互通渠道最小。本文据此提出相应政策建议,以期为推动"一带一路"建设高质量发展和行稳致远提供一定参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper aims to investigate the impact of the Belt and Road(B&R)Initiative on the industrial structure upgrade of countries along the route. On the basis of constructing the mechanism framework of the Initiative affecting the industrial structure upgrade of B&R countries, this paper uses the panel data of 49 B&R countries and 65 non-B&R countries, and takes the propensity score match and difference-in-difference(PSM-DID) method to evaluate the policy effect of the Initiative on the industrial structure upgrade of B&R countries. The empirical results show that the Initiative can significantly promote the industrial structure optimization and rationalization of B&R countries on the whole. Further analysis shows that the policy effect of the Initiative has lag characteristics, and its influence degree and effect have an increasing trend over the time. Moreover, the effect of the Initiative has significant heterogeneity on the industrial structure upgrade of B&R countries with different income levels and different regional locations. Under the Initiative, the industrial structure of B&R countries can be optimized and upgraded through expanding bilateral trade exchanges, strengthening bilateral production capacity cooperation and actively promoting infrastructure connectivity. Comparatively speaking, the promotion effect on the industrial structure upgrade of B&R countries through bilateral production capacity cooperation channels is the largest, followed by trade channels and infrastructure connectivity channels.Therefore, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions to promote the high-quality development of the B&R construction.更多还原